Haka 0-3 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kooteepee at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs Kooteepee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kooteepee make the trip to Tehtaan kenttä to face Haka in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 14 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.05 xG and Kooteepee 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.962 / defence 1.150 | Kooteepee attack 0.799 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 0.956 / away 1.537. Data: 2 Haka games / 2 Kooteepee games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Haka 24% | Draw 34% | Kooteepee 41%. Fair-value odds: Haka 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | Kooteepee 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kooteepee at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kooteepee if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 24% | Draw 34% | Kooteepee 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Haka 1.05 / Kooteepee 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.962 / def 1.150 | Kooteepee attack 0.799 / def 1.144 | league avg home 0.956 / away 1.537 • Poisson stance: Kooteepee (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Kooteepee xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Kooteepee kick off?
Haka vs Kooteepee kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 14 May 2021 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Kooteepee?
Haka 0 - 3 Kooteepee.
Where is Haka vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Kooteepee part of?
Haka vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 24% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Kooteepee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Haka and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Kooteepee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haka and Kooteepee in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Haka's attack rating (0.96) and Kooteepee's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kooteepee's attack (0.80x) against Haka's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kooteepee Win
24%
4.12
34%
2.92
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Haka xG
Total xG
2.46
1.41
Kooteepee xG
4.12
24%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
6%
16.90
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Haka and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Haka and 1.41 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Pre-Season
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kooteepee have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kooteepee won 0-3 on 14 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haka have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
3
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Kooteepee?
From 9 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, Kooteepee have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Haka 1-2 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Kooteepee?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Kooteepee run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Haka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kooteepee beat Haka 0-3 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.05 xG and Kooteepee 1.41 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Haka fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Kooteepee outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Kooteepee attack 0.80 / defence 1.14, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Haka 24% | Draw 34% | Kooteepee 41%, with Kooteepee to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.