Wolves 0-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolves at 46%, yet in-form Fulham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wolves vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Fulham travel to Molineux Stadium to take on Wolves. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Wolves have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Wolves have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolves have posted 4W 1D 5L at Molineux Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Wolves are significantly better at Molineux Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fulham stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fulham are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Wolves trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Fulham trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolves 38% versus Fulham 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolves 38% | Fulham 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolves 1.62 xG and Fulham 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolves attack 0.948 / defence 1.116 | Fulham attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.305. Data: 39 Wolves games / 1 Fulham games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wolves 46% | Draw 24% | Fulham 29%. Fair-value odds: Wolves 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Fulham 3.45. Wolves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wolves as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fulham (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Wolves 60% | Fulham 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolves vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Molineux Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolves 46% | Draw 24% | Fulham 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Wolves 1.62 / Fulham 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Wolves attack 0.948 / def 1.116 | Fulham attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Wolves (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Wolves xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Fulham xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolves vs Fulham kick off?
Wolves vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Molineux Stadium.
What was the final score in Wolves vs Fulham?
Wolves 0 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Wolves vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Molineux Stadium.
What competition is Wolves vs Fulham part of?
Wolves vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Wolves vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Wolves a 46% chance of winning, Fulham a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolves vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wolves and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Wolves vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Fulham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolves and Fulham in?
Wolves (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wolves's attack rating (0.95) and Fulham's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Wolves's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
46%
2.16
24%
4.09
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Wolves xG
Total xG
2.86
1.24
Fulham xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolves vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Wolves and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Wolves and 1.24 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolves vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolves come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 6D 18L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Wolves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.92 PPG from 39 outings (22W 9D 8L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Wolves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wolves's home form reads 7W 3D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.84 points per game from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.31 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Fulham in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolves
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolves and Fulham in coming into this match?
Wolves have gone 15W 6D 18L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Fulham have gone 22W 9D 8L in their last 39 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolves at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolves at home: 1.26 PPG; Fulham away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Wolves or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolves have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Fulham in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolves and Fulham runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Wolves won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolves's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Wolves
3
Draws
3
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Wolves have won 2, Fulham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wolves and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Wolves 1-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Wolves and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolves 42%, Fulham 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Wolves) and 42% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Fulham in 42%; Wolves have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolves home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolves play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Wolves's recent matches and 47% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolves vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Wolves's recent games and 42% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Wolves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 2, as Wolves and Fulham drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.62 xG and Fulham 1.24 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wolves fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Fulham attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wolves 46% | Draw 24% | Fulham 29%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 38%, Fulham 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolves's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fulham's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.