West Ham 2-0 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Ham at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Bournemouth travel to London Stadium to take on West Ham. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 October 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, West Ham stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at London Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (West Ham) versus 1.00 (Bournemouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
West Ham in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 57% versus Bournemouth 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 49% | Bournemouth 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 2.27 xG and Bournemouth 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.965 / defence 0.990 | Bournemouth attack 0.958 / defence 1.455. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.100. Bournemouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.455 — this is suppressing West Ham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 West Ham games / 11 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 64% | Draw 21% | Bournemouth 15%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Bournemouth 6.67. The model has a clear lean to West Ham (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Ham are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Ham 70% | Bournemouth 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 64% | Draw 21% | Bournemouth 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG West Ham 2.27 / Bournemouth 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.965 / def 0.990 | Bournemouth attack 0.958 / def 1.455 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: West Ham (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bournemouth xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Bournemouth kick off?
West Ham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Bournemouth?
West Ham 2 - 0 Bournemouth.
Where is West Ham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Bournemouth part of?
West Ham vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 64% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both West Ham and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Bournemouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Ham and Bournemouth in?
West Ham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Bournemouth (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Ham's attack rating (0.96) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 2.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.78
15%
6.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.32
1.04
Bournemouth xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
6.66
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
10%
9.73
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
2%
64.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are West Ham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for West Ham and 1.04 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Ham's recent record stands at 19W 10D 20L from 49 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 23W 14D 12L across 49 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.37 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, West Ham have managed 11W 6D 7L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 10W 7D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 19W 10D 20L in their last 49 games (1.37 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 23W 14D 12L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Bournemouth away?
West Ham's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.62 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.54 PPG.
Have West Ham or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 6 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when West Ham won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Ham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
West Ham
6
Draws
0
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Bournemouth?
From 8 meetings on record, West Ham have won 2, Bournemouth have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Bournemouth?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 71%, Bournemouth 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (West Ham) and 50% (Bournemouth).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of West Ham's games and 42% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of West Ham's recent games and 50% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
West Ham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bournemouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Bournemouth 2-0 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 2.27 xG and Bournemouth 1.04 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bournemouth landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Bournemouth attack 0.96 / defence 1.46, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 64% | Draw 21% | Bournemouth 15%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 49%, Bournemouth 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Bournemouth's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.37 PPG, Bournemouth 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.