Tottenham 2-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tottenham vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium plays host to Tottenham versus Bournemouth in Premier League (matchday 28). Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Tottenham have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Tottenham's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bournemouth's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Bournemouth have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Bournemouth arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Tottenham's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Tottenham's games and 90% of Bournemouth's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Tottenham edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2024, ended Tottenham 0–1 Bournemouth — a Bournemouth win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Tottenham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Bournemouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tottenham 66% and Bournemouth 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Tottenham 74% | Bournemouth 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.58 xG and Bournemouth 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.029 / defence 1.151 | Bournemouth attack 1.222 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.494. Bournemouth have an above-average attack rating of 1.222, which lifts their away xG to 2.10. Data: built from Tottenham's last 65 games and Bournemouth's last 65.
Result probabilities: Tottenham 29% | Draw 21% | Bournemouth 50%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 3.43 | Draw 4.76 | Bournemouth 2.01. Bournemouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.68. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.68 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (1.58 / 2.10) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Tottenham's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tottenham 80% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 29% | Draw 21% | Bournemouth 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG Tottenham 1.58 / Bournemouth 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.029 / def 1.151 | Bournemouth attack 1.222 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.494 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Bournemouth xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tottenham vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Tottenham vs Bournemouth kick off?
Tottenham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Bournemouth?
Tottenham 2 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is Tottenham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Bournemouth part of?
Tottenham vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 29% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 50% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Tottenham and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tottenham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Tottenham's attack at 1.03x the league average against Bournemouth's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bournemouth's attack (1.22x) against Tottenham's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from Tottenham's last 65 games and Bournemouth's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
29%
3.43
21%
4.76
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Tottenham xG
Total xG
3.68
2.10
Bournemouth xG
3.43
29%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
12%
8.18
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
4%
28.04
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tottenham vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Tottenham and 2.10 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Tottenham's recent record stands at 30W 9D 26L from 65 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 25W 16D 24L across 65 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Tottenham against 1.40 for Bournemouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Tottenham have managed 18W 2D 13L from their last 33 home games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 12W 7D 14L across their last 33 away games, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Tottenham are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.52 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Bournemouth in 60%.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
Tottenham (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tottenham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Tottenham vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Tottenham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 30W 9D 26L in their last 65 games (1.52 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 25W 16D 24L in their last 65 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Bournemouth away?
Tottenham's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 1.70 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 7 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bournemouth have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tottenham have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bournemouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tottenham
1
Draws
4
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Tottenham vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Bournemouth?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Tottenham have won 3, Bournemouth have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 January 2026: Bournemouth 3-2 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Tottenham, 73% for Bournemouth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Tottenham and 79% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tottenham vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tottenham and Bournemouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Tottenham's games and 73% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tottenham and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Tottenham's matches and 79% of Bournemouth's.
Do Tottenham and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Tottenham's recent matches and 85% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tottenham and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Tottenham and Bournemouth drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.58 xG and Bournemouth 2.10 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.03 / defence 1.15 against Bournemouth attack 1.22 / defence 1.05, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 29% | Draw 21% | Bournemouth 50%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 74%, Bournemouth 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.52 PPG, Bournemouth 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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