Sunderland 3-2 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Sunderland welcome Bournemouth to Stadium of Light. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sunderland — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadium of Light this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sunderland at 1.60 PPG versus Bournemouth's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 48% versus Bournemouth 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 40% | Bournemouth 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 2.22 xG and Bournemouth 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.039 / defence 1.025 | Bournemouth attack 1.151 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.181. Bournemouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Sunderland games / 50 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 56% | Draw 20% | Bournemouth 24%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Bournemouth 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Sunderland (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 50% | Bournemouth 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 56% | Draw 20% | Bournemouth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Sunderland 2.22 / Bournemouth 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.039 / def 1.025 | Bournemouth attack 1.151 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Bournemouth xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Bournemouth kick off?
Sunderland vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Bournemouth?
Sunderland 3 - 2 Bournemouth.
Where is Sunderland vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Bournemouth part of?
Sunderland vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 56% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sunderland and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Bournemouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and Bournemouth in?
Sunderland (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Bournemouth (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 1.04x the league average against Bournemouth's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 2.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
56%
1.78
20%
4.95
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Sunderland xG
Total xG
3.61
1.39
Bournemouth xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
11%
9.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
3%
38.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.39 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Bournemouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Sunderland have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 20W 17D 13L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth's form line: 20W 15D 15L from 50 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.54 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 1.72 PPG from 25 outings (11W 10D 4L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 8W 9D 8L from 25 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.54 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 20W 17D 13L in their last 50 games (1.54 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 20W 15D 15L in their last 50 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Bournemouth away?
Sunderland's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.72 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sunderland and Bournemouth runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sunderland
1
Draws
0
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Bournemouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, Bournemouth have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Bournemouth?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sunderland at 56%, Bournemouth at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Sunderland and 80% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sunderland's games and 76% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sunderland vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Sunderland's matches and 80% of Bournemouth's.
Do Sunderland and Bournemouth tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Bournemouth 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Bournemouth 3-2 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 2.22 xG and Bournemouth 1.39 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Bournemouth attack 1.15 / defence 1.38, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 56% | Draw 20% | Bournemouth 24%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 40%, Bournemouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.54 PPG, Bournemouth 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.