Nottingham Forest 2-2 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nottingham Forest at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nottingham Forest vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Everton make the trip to The City Ground to face Nottingham Forest in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Nottingham Forest (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest at The City Ground this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Everton have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Everton have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Nottingham Forest's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nottingham Forest lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Everton — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 40% versus Everton 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 41% | Everton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.44 xG and Everton 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.875 / defence 0.939 | Everton attack 0.633 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.060. Data: 24 Nottingham Forest games / 63 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 57% | Draw 27% | Everton 16%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Everton 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Nottingham Forest (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 60% | Everton 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 57% | Draw 27% | Everton 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 36% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.44 / Everton 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.875 / def 0.939 | Everton attack 0.633 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Everton xG
36%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Everton kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Everton kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Nottingham Forest 2 - 2 Everton.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Everton part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Everton is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 57% chance of winning, Everton a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Everton?
Record (1 meetings): Nottingham Forest 0W | Draws 1 | Everton 0W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Everton in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Everton (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — Everton's attack (0.63x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 24/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 2-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
57%
1.76
27%
3.72
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.07
0.63
Everton xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
4%
26.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 11.4 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 0.63 for Everton, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Everton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nottingham Forest come into this having played 63 games, going 29W 16D 18L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton sit at 0.95 PPG from 63 outings (16W 12D 35L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nottingham Forest carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Nottingham Forest's home form reads 18W 7D 6L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 0.55 points per game from 31 outings (3W 8D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.95 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Everton in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 29W 16D 18L in their last 63 games (1.63 PPG), while Everton have gone 16W 12D 35L in their last 63 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Everton away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.97 PPG; Everton away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Everton in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 30 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Everton have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton won 3-0 on 6 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nottingham Forest have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Everton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
5
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Everton?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Everton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2025, when Nottingham Forest 0-2 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 45%, Everton 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nottingham Forest) and 52% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Everton in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 52% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 52% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Nottingham Forest and Everton share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest and Everton finished level at 2-2 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.44 xG and Everton 0.63 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Everton outscored their 0.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Everton attack 0.63 / defence 1.18, drawn from 24/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 57% | Draw 27% | Everton 16%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 41%, Everton 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nottingham Forest arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.