Newcastle 1-1 Everton – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Newcastle at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newcastle vs Everton encounter.

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Match Analysis

Newcastle host Everton at St. James' Park in Premier League (matchday 31). Kick-off is Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 19:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Newcastle — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Newcastle have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Newcastle are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Everton stand at 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Everton's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Newcastle are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Newcastle have won 2, Everton 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2023, ended Newcastle 0–3 Everton — a Everton win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Newcastle trading profile (last 67 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

Everton trading profile (last 67 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 55% versus Everton 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 60% | Everton 45%). Note also that Everton surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Newcastle recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 2.14 xG and Everton 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.351 / defence 1.069 | Everton attack 0.705 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.535. Newcastle carry an above-average attack rating of 1.351 — their 2.14 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Everton's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Data: built from Newcastle's last 67 games and Everton's last 67.

Result probabilities: Newcastle 59% | Draw 23% | Everton 19%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 1.71 | Draw 4.37 | Everton 5.38. The model has a clear lean to Newcastle (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.14 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Newcastle's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Newcastle 60% (last 10 home games) | Everton 40% (last 10 away games).

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