Newcastle 1-0 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Aston Villa at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aston Villa make the trip to St. James' Park to face Newcastle in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Newcastle have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Newcastle have posted 2W 5D 3L at St. James' Park — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Aston Villa (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aston Villa's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Newcastle against 1.40 for Aston Villa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Newcastle lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Aston Villa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Aston Villa half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Newcastle 68% and Aston Villa 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 50% | Aston Villa 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.19 xG and Aston Villa 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 0.962 / defence 1.427 | Aston Villa attack 0.752 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.291. Data: 22 Newcastle games / 22 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 31% | Draw 29% | Aston Villa 40%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Aston Villa 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aston Villa at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aston Villa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 70% | Aston Villa 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 31% | Draw 29% | Aston Villa 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Newcastle 1.19 / Aston Villa 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 0.962 / def 1.427 | Aston Villa attack 0.752 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Aston Villa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Aston Villa kick off?
Newcastle vs Aston Villa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Newcastle 1 - 0 Aston Villa.
Where is Newcastle vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Aston Villa part of?
Newcastle vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 31% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Newcastle and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Aston Villa?
Record (1 meetings): Newcastle 0W | Draws 0 | Aston Villa 1W.
What form are Newcastle and Aston Villa in?
Newcastle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Aston Villa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (0.96) and Aston Villa's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (0.75x) against Newcastle's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
31%
3.22
29%
3.51
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.57
1.39
Aston Villa xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
8%
12.87
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.39 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Newcastle have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 3W 9D 10L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aston Villa's form line: 8W 3D 11L from 22 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aston Villa are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Newcastle.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Newcastle have posted 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (2W 6D 3L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 4W 0D 7L from 11 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Newcastle are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.41 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 3W 9D 10L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 8W 3D 11L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Aston Villa away?
Newcastle's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.09 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 4-0 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newcastle have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aston Villa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Newcastle
1
Draws
4
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Aston Villa?
From 10 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 5, Aston Villa have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Newcastle 0-2 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Aston Villa?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 73%, Aston Villa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Newcastle) and 54% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Aston Villa in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Aston Villa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Newcastle's games and 46% of Aston Villa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newcastle vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Newcastle's recent games and 54% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Newcastle defy the odds to beat Aston Villa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Aston Villa 1-0 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.19 xG and Aston Villa 1.39 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Aston Villa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 0.96 / defence 1.43 against Aston Villa attack 0.75 / defence 1.09, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 31% | Draw 29% | Aston Villa 40%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Newcastle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 50%, Aston Villa 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Aston Villa's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Newcastle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.