Manchester United 1-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Manchester United at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Manchester United vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Manchester United welcome Fulham to Old Trafford. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Manchester United have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Manchester United haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Manchester United have posted 5W 3D 2L at Old Trafford — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Manchester United are significantly better at Old Trafford than their overall form suggests.
Fulham — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fulham haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Fulham have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Manchester United) versus 1.20 (Fulham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Manchester United register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Fulham in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Manchester United, 1 for Fulham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Fulham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Manchester United in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Fulham in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Manchester United 55% versus Fulham 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Manchester United 63% | Fulham 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Manchester United 1.84 xG and Fulham 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Manchester United attack 1.002 / defence 0.978 | Fulham attack 1.006 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.851 / away 1.523. Data: 38 Manchester United games / 38 Fulham games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Manchester United 45% | Draw 24% | Fulham 31%. Fair-value odds: Manchester United 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Fulham 3.23. Manchester United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Manchester United as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Manchester United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Manchester United 70% | Fulham 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Manchester United vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Old Trafford • Kick-off: Friday 16 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Manchester United 45% | Draw 24% | Fulham 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Manchester United 1.84 / Fulham 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Manchester United attack 1.002 / def 0.978 | Fulham attack 1.006 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.851 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Manchester United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Manchester United xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Fulham xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Manchester United vs Fulham kick off?
Manchester United vs Fulham kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 16 August 2024 at Old Trafford.
What was the final score in Manchester United vs Fulham?
Manchester United 1 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Manchester United vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Old Trafford.
What competition is Manchester United vs Fulham part of?
Manchester United vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Manchester United vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Manchester United a 45% chance of winning, Fulham a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Manchester United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Manchester United vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Manchester United and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Manchester United vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Fulham?
Record (4 meetings): Manchester United 3W | Draws 0 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Manchester United and Fulham in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Manchester United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Manchester United's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.84. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Manchester United's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Manchester United Win
45%
2.21
24%
4.22
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Manchester United xG
Total xG
3.34
1.50
Fulham xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
5%
20.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Manchester United vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Manchester United and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Manchester United and 1.50 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Manchester United vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Manchester United's recent record stands at 18W 6D 14L from 38 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. Manchester United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Fulham, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 17L across 38 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. Fulham haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Manchester United on 1.58 PPG, Fulham on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Manchester United have managed 10W 3D 6L from 19 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fulham's away record stands at 4W 6D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Manchester United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Manchester United are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.45 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Manchester United
Pre-Season
Fulham
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Manchester United and Fulham in coming into this match?
Manchester United have gone 18W 6D 14L in their last 38 games (1.58 PPG), while Fulham have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Manchester United at home or Fulham away?
Manchester United's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Manchester United at home: 1.74 PPG; Fulham away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Manchester United's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Manchester United
1
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester United and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Manchester United have won 6, Fulham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Manchester United and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Manchester United 3-2 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Manchester United and Fulham?
Manchester United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Manchester United 58%, Fulham 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Manchester United and 63% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Manchester United home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Manchester United play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Manchester United's games and 58% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Manchester United vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Manchester United's matches and 63% of Fulham's.
Prediction vindicated as Manchester United edge out Fulham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Manchester United beat Fulham 1-0 at Old Trafford, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Manchester United 1.84 xG and Fulham 1.50 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Manchester United fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Manchester United attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Fulham attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Manchester United 45% | Draw 24% | Fulham 31%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Manchester United 63%, Fulham 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Manchester United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Manchester United 1.58 PPG, Fulham 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Manchester United win broke the near-deadlock. Manchester United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.