Liverpool 2-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Liverpool vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Liverpool welcome Everton to Anfield. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Liverpool — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Anfield, Liverpool have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Liverpool are significantly better at Anfield than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Everton have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Liverpool have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Liverpool have won 2, Everton 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Liverpool in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Everton in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liverpool 48% versus Everton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liverpool 66% | Everton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liverpool 1.64 xG and Everton 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liverpool attack 1.139 / defence 0.844 | Everton attack 0.724 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.421 / away 1.129. Data: 58 Liverpool games / 59 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Liverpool 60% | Draw 26% | Everton 15%. Fair-value odds: Liverpool 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Everton 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Liverpool (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liverpool are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Liverpool 60% | Everton 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liverpool vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Anfield • Kick-off: Monday 13 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liverpool 60% | Draw 26% | Everton 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG Liverpool 1.64 / Everton 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Liverpool attack 1.139 / def 0.844 | Everton attack 0.724 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.421 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Liverpool xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Everton xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Liverpool vs Everton kick off?
Liverpool vs Everton kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 13 February 2023 at Anfield.
What was the final score in Liverpool vs Everton?
Liverpool 2 - 0 Everton.
Where is Liverpool vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Anfield.
What competition is Liverpool vs Everton part of?
Liverpool vs Everton is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Liverpool vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Liverpool a 60% chance of winning, Everton a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liverpool vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Liverpool and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Liverpool vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Everton?
Record (3 meetings): Liverpool 2W | Draws 1 | Everton 0W.
What form are Liverpool and Everton in?
Liverpool (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Everton (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Liverpool's attack at 1.14x the league average against Everton's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Liverpool's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
60%
1.68
26%
3.90
15%
6.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Liverpool xG
Total xG
2.33
0.69
Everton xG
1.68
60%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
6.80
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
3%
35.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Liverpool vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Liverpool and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Liverpool and 0.69 for Everton, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Liverpool vs Everton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Liverpool have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 36W 13D 9L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton's form line: 14W 12D 32L from 58 games, 0.93 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Liverpool are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Everton.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Liverpool have posted 2.41 PPG from 29 outings (21W 7D 1L).
On the road, Everton have gone 3W 8D 18L from 29 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Liverpool are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.97 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liverpool
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Liverpool and Everton in coming into this match?
Liverpool have gone 36W 13D 9L in their last 58 games (2.09 PPG), while Everton have gone 14W 12D 32L in their last 58 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liverpool at home or Everton away?
Liverpool's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liverpool at home: 2.41 PPG; Everton away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Liverpool or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Liverpool have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Everton in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Liverpool and Everton runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Liverpool have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2021, when Liverpool won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Liverpool's record when hosting Everton specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Liverpool
2
Draws
1
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Liverpool and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Liverpool have won 7, Everton have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Liverpool and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Everton 1-2 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Liverpool and Everton?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liverpool 45%, Everton 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Liverpool) and 52% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Everton in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liverpool home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Liverpool play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Liverpool's recent matches and 55% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Liverpool vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Liverpool's matches and 52% of Everton's.
Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Everton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Liverpool beat Everton 2-0 at Anfield, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liverpool 1.64 xG and Everton 0.69 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liverpool attack 1.14 / defence 0.84 against Everton attack 0.72 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liverpool 60% | Draw 26% | Everton 15%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liverpool 66%, Everton 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liverpool's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.