Leicester 1-1 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tottenham at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leicester vs Tottenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Tottenham travel to King Power Stadium to take on Leicester. The game is scheduled for Monday 19 August 2024, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Leicester have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Leicester haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at King Power Stadium, Leicester have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tottenham stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Tottenham haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Tottenham away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Leicester 1.60 PPG, Tottenham 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Leicester, 3 for Tottenham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 5.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 4–1 with Leicester winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Leicester in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Tottenham in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leicester 53% and Tottenham 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Leicester 60% | Tottenham 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.46 xG and Tottenham 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Tottenham attack 1.027 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.467. Data: 0 Leicester games / 38 Tottenham games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Leicester 33% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 44%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Tottenham 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tottenham as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 70% | Tottenham 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 33% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Leicester 1.46 / Tottenham 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Tottenham attack 1.027 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.467 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Tottenham xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Tottenham kick off?
Leicester vs Tottenham kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 19 August 2024 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Tottenham?
Leicester 1 - 1 Tottenham.
Where is Leicester vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Tottenham part of?
Leicester vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 33% chance of winning, Tottenham a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Leicester and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Tottenham?
Record (4 meetings): Leicester 1W | Draws 0 | Tottenham 3W.
What form are Leicester and Tottenham in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Leicester (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leicester's attack rating (0.85) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (0/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
33%
3.07
23%
4.30
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Leicester xG
Total xG
3.19
1.73
Tottenham xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
6%
17.36
10%
9.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Leicester and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Leicester and 1.73 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leicester's recent record stands at 24W 4D 10L from 38 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. Leicester haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 20W 6D 12L across 38 games — 1.74 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. Tottenham haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leicester on 2.00 PPG, Tottenham on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 14W 1D 4L from 19 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 7W 6D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leicester are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.95 scored and 1.61 conceded. Tottenham's attacking output running into Leicester's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham in 71%.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Pre-Season
Tottenham
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 24W 4D 10L in their last 38 games (2.00 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 20W 6D 12L in their last 38 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Tottenham away?
Leicester's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 2.26 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Leicester or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Tottenham in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leicester and Tottenham runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Tottenham won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leicester's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Leicester
1
Draws
3
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Tottenham?
From 6 meetings on record, Leicester have won 2, Tottenham have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Tottenham 1-2 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 47%, Tottenham 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Leicester and 74% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leicester keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Leicester's recent matches and 58% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Leicester's matches and 74% of Tottenham's.
Leicester and Tottenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester and Tottenham finished level at 1-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.46 xG and Tottenham 1.73 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Tottenham attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 0/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 33% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 44%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 60%, Tottenham 79%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Tottenham's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 2.00 PPG, Tottenham 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.