Leicester 1-2 Everton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Leicester at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leicester host Everton at King Power Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Leicester's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at King Power Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Leicester are significantly better at King Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Everton's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Leicester have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Leicester register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Everton in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Leicester, 0 for Everton and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Leicester in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Everton in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 67% versus Everton 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 61% | Everton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.95 xG and Everton 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.042 / defence 1.008 | Everton attack 0.647 / defence 1.679. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.301. Everton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.679 — this is suppressing Leicester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Leicester games / 33 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 63% | Draw 21% | Everton 16%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Everton 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Leicester (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Leicester 60% | Everton 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 63% | Draw 21% | Everton 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 49% | xG Leicester 1.95 / Everton 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.042 / def 1.008 | Everton attack 0.647 / def 1.679 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Leicester (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Everton xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Everton kick off?
Leicester vs Everton kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Everton?
Leicester 1 - 2 Everton.
Where is Leicester vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Everton part of?
Leicester vs Everton is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 63% chance of winning, Everton a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Leicester and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Everton?
Record (1 meetings): Leicester 0W | Draws 1 | Everton 0W.
What form are Leicester and Everton in?
Leicester (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Everton (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Leicester's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (1.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.72
16%
6.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.80
0.85
Everton xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
6.41
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
2%
45.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Leicester and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Leicester and 0.85 for Everton, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Everton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leicester come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 9D 13L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Everton sit at 0.97 PPG from 33 outings (9W 5D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leicester on 1.27 PPG, Everton on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Leicester's home form reads 8W 4D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Leicester are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Everton have taken 0.38 points per game from 16 outings (1W 3D 12L). That's a step down from their 0.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Everton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Leicester are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.06 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Everton in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 11W 9D 13L in their last 33 games (1.27 PPG), while Everton have gone 9W 5D 19L in their last 33 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Everton away?
Leicester's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.75 PPG; Everton away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Everton won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leicester's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Leicester
3
Draws
2
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Everton?
From 6 meetings on record, Leicester have won 1, Everton have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Everton 4-0 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 50%, Everton 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Leicester) and 62% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leicester keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Everton in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Leicester's recent matches and 56% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Leicester's matches and 62% of Everton's.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Leicester 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Leicester 1-2 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.95 xG and Everton 0.85 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Leicester fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Everton outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Everton attack 0.65 / defence 1.68, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 63% | Draw 21% | Everton 16%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Everton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 61%, Everton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.27 PPG, Everton 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.