Leicester 1-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leicester host Everton at King Power Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Leicester have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Leicester's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at King Power Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Leicester are significantly better at King Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Leicester at 1.10 PPG versus Everton's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Leicester register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Everton in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Leicester, 1 for Everton and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Leicester in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Everton in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 57% versus Everton 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 62% | Everton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.54 xG and Everton 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.803 / defence 1.116 | Everton attack 0.849 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.494. Everton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Leicester's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Leicester games / 42 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 39% | Draw 28% | Everton 33%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Everton 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leicester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 70% | Everton 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 39% | Draw 28% | Everton 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Leicester 1.54 / Everton 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.803 / def 1.116 | Everton attack 0.849 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.494 • Poisson stance: Leicester (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Everton xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Everton kick off?
Leicester vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Everton?
Leicester 1 - 1 Everton.
Where is Leicester vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Everton part of?
Leicester vs Everton is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 39% chance of winning, Everton a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Leicester and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Everton?
Record (4 meetings): Leicester 1W | Draws 2 | Everton 1W.
What form are Leicester and Everton in?
Leicester (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Everton (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Leicester's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.62
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.95
1.42
Everton xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
7%
13.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Leicester and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Leicester and 1.42 for Everton, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leicester come into this having played 42 games, going 24W 6D 12L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Leicester, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.14 PPG from 42 outings (13W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Leicester carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Leicester's home form reads 14W 2D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Leicester are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.05 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Early Season
Everton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Everton in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 24W 6D 12L in their last 42 games (1.86 PPG), while Everton have gone 13W 9D 20L in their last 42 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Everton away?
Leicester's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 2.10 PPG; Everton away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Leicester or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leicester have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Everton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Everton won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leicester's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Leicester
3
Draws
2
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Everton?
From 6 meetings on record, Leicester have won 1, Everton have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Everton 4-0 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 52%, Everton 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Leicester) and 52% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leicester keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Everton in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Leicester's recent matches and 48% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Leicester's matches and 52% of Everton's.
Leicester and Everton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Leicester and Everton drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.54 xG and Everton 1.42 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.80 / defence 1.12 against Everton attack 0.85 / defence 1.39, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 39% | Draw 28% | Everton 33%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 62%, Everton 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Leicester arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.