Leicester 0-0 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crystal Palace make the trip to King Power Stadium to face Leicester in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Leicester (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Leicester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at King Power Stadium, Leicester have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Leicester are significantly better at King Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Crystal Palace have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Crystal Palace are 0.50 PPG clear of Leicester in recent Premier League fixtures (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Leicester have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Crystal Palace in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Leicester lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Leicester winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Leicester — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leicester 72% and Crystal Palace 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 70% | Crystal Palace 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.42 xG and Crystal Palace 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.979 / defence 1.001 | Crystal Palace attack 0.972 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.223. Data: 47 Leicester games / 46 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 41% | Draw 30% | Crystal Palace 30%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Crystal Palace 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leicester are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Crystal Palace (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 60% | Crystal Palace 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 41% | Draw 30% | Crystal Palace 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Leicester 1.42 / Crystal Palace 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.979 / def 1.001 | Crystal Palace attack 0.972 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Leicester (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Crystal Palace xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Leicester vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Crystal Palace?
Leicester 0 - 0 Crystal Palace.
Where is Leicester vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Crystal Palace part of?
Leicester vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 41% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Leicester and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Crystal Palace?
Record (2 meetings): Leicester 1W | Draws 1 | Crystal Palace 0W.
What form are Leicester and Crystal Palace in?
Leicester (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Crystal Palace (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Leicester's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Crystal Palace's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.97x) against Leicester's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
41%
2.47
30%
3.39
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.61
1.19
Crystal Palace xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
7%
13.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Leicester and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Leicester and 1.19 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leicester's recent record stands at 14W 11D 21L from 46 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Leicester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 15L across 46 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Leicester against 1.24 for Crystal Palace. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 10W 5D 7L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Leicester are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 4W 9D 9L across 22 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.30 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 13W 18D 15L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Crystal Palace away?
Leicester's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.59 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Leicester
3
Draws
2
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Crystal Palace?
From 6 meetings on record, Leicester have won 1, Crystal Palace have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2025, when Leicester 0-2 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 54%, Crystal Palace 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Leicester) and 50% (Crystal Palace). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Leicester's recent matches and 54% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Leicester's matches and 50% of Crystal Palace's.
Stalemate at Leicester's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Leicester and Crystal Palace drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.42 xG and Crystal Palace 1.19 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Leicester fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Crystal Palace landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Crystal Palace attack 0.97 / defence 0.83, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 41% | Draw 30% | Crystal Palace 30%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 70%, Crystal Palace 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.15 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.