Leicester 2-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crystal Palace make the trip to King Power Stadium to face Leicester in Premier League, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Leicester (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at King Power Stadium, Leicester have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Leicester are significantly better at King Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Crystal Palace have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Crystal Palace away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Leicester against 1.40 for Crystal Palace. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Leicester lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Leicester — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 64% versus Crystal Palace 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 61% | Crystal Palace 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.37 xG and Crystal Palace 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.119 / defence 1.062 | Crystal Palace attack 0.830 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.383. Data: 28 Leicester games / 30 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 40% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 33%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Crystal Palace 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leicester are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Leicester 50% | Crystal Palace 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 40% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Leicester 1.37 / Crystal Palace 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.119 / def 1.062 | Crystal Palace attack 0.830 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Leicester (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Crystal Palace xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Leicester vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Crystal Palace?
Leicester 2 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Leicester vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Crystal Palace part of?
Leicester vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 40% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Leicester and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Crystal Palace?
Record (1 meetings): Leicester 0W | Draws 1 | Crystal Palace 0W.
What form are Leicester and Crystal Palace in?
Leicester (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Crystal Palace (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Leicester's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Crystal Palace's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.83x) against Leicester's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 28/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.79
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.59
1.22
Crystal Palace xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.5 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Leicester and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Leicester and 1.22 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leicester's recent record stands at 10W 7D 11L from 28 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 8L across 28 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Leicester against 1.29 for Crystal Palace. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 6W 3D 4L from 13 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 3W 6D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Current Season
Crystal Palace
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 10W 7D 11L in their last 28 games (1.32 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 8W 12D 8L in their last 28 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Crystal Palace away?
Leicester's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.62 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Leicester
3
Draws
2
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Crystal Palace?
From 6 meetings on record, Leicester have won 1, Crystal Palace have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2025, when Leicester 0-2 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 54%, Crystal Palace 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Leicester) and 46% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Leicester's recent matches and 46% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Leicester's recent games and 46% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Leicester edge out Crystal Palace 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Crystal Palace 2-1 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.37 xG and Crystal Palace 1.22 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.12 / defence 1.06 against Crystal Palace attack 0.83 / defence 1.13, drawn from 28/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 40% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 33%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 61%, Crystal Palace 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.32 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.