Leicester 2-2 Brentford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Leicester at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs Brentford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Brentford travel to King Power Stadium to take on Leicester. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Leicester stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Leicester haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Leicester's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at King Power Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brentford — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Brentford haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Brentford's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Leicester 1.50 PPG, Brentford 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Leicester, 0 for Brentford and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Mar 2022, ended 2–1 with Leicester winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Leicester in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Brentford in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leicester 68% and Brentford 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 63% | Brentford 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.80 xG and Brentford 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.085 / defence 0.942 | Brentford attack 1.073 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.273. Data: 38 Leicester games / 38 Brentford games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Leicester 50% | Draw 23% | Brentford 27%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Brentford 3.70. Leicester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Leicester as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leicester offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 70% | Brentford 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 50% | Draw 23% | Brentford 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Leicester 1.80 / Brentford 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.085 / def 0.942 | Brentford attack 1.073 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Leicester (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Brentford xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs Brentford kick off?
Leicester vs Brentford kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs Brentford?
Leicester 2 - 2 Brentford.
Where is Leicester vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs Brentford part of?
Leicester vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 50% chance of winning, Brentford a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Leicester and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Brentford?
Record (2 meetings): Leicester 2W | Draws 0 | Brentford 0W.
What form are Leicester and Brentford in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Leicester (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Leicester's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Brentford's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Brentford's attack versus Leicester's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
50%
2.02
23%
4.34
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Leicester xG
Total xG
3.09
1.29
Brentford xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
5%
22.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Leicester and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Leicester and 1.29 for Brentford, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leicester's recent record stands at 14W 10D 14L from 38 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. Leicester haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Brentford, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 18L across 38 games — 1.21 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. Brentford haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leicester on 1.37 PPG, Brentford on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Leicester have managed 10W 4D 5L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Leicester are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Brentford's away record stands at 6W 4D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leicester are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.26 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Pre-Season
Brentford
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and Brentford in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 14W 10D 14L in their last 38 games (1.37 PPG), while Brentford have gone 13W 7D 18L in their last 38 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or Brentford away?
Leicester's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.79 PPG; Brentford away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leicester and Brentford runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brentford have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Feb 2025, when Brentford won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leicester's record when hosting Brentford specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Leicester
2
Draws
2
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and Brentford?
From 6 meetings on record, Leicester have won 2, Brentford have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Leicester 0-4 Brentford.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 53%, Brentford 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Leicester and 68% for Brentford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leicester keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Brentford in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play Brentford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Leicester's games and 63% of Brentford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Leicester vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Leicester's matches and 68% of Brentford's.
Leicester and Brentford share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester and Brentford finished level at 2-2 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.80 xG and Brentford 1.29 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Brentford attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 50% | Draw 23% | Brentford 27%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 63%, Brentford 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Brentford's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 1.37 PPG, Brentford 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.