Hull City vs Fulham – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Hull City have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at MKM Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MKM Stadium.
Fulham (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Hull City's favour (1.60 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Fulham, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2026, ended 0–1 with Fulham winning.
It is worth noting that Fulham have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 56% versus Fulham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 53% | Fulham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.33 xG and Fulham 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.907 / defence 1.003 | Fulham attack 0.717 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.269. Data: 7 Hull City games / 45 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 46% | Draw 29% | Fulham 25%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Fulham 4.00. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Fulham lead the H2H ledger, but Hull City carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 50% | Fulham 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 46% | Draw 29% | Fulham 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Hull City 1.33 / Fulham 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.907 / def 1.003 | Fulham attack 0.717 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Hull City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Fulham xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Fulham kick off?
Hull City vs Fulham is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 May 2027 at MKM Stadium.
Where is Hull City vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Fulham part of?
Hull City vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 46% chance of winning, Fulham a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hull City and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Fulham?
Record (3 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 0 | Fulham 3W.
What form are Hull City and Fulham in?
Hull City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Fulham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hull City's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.72x) against Hull City's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.46
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.24
0.91
Fulham xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
7%
14.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hull City and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Hull City and 0.91 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 20W 11D 14L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fulham's form line: 16W 9D 20L from 45 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Hull City against 1.27 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.55 PPG from 22 outings (9W 7D 6L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 4W 6D 12L from 22 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fulham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hull City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.20 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Fulham in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 20W 11D 14L in their last 45 games (1.58 PPG), while Fulham have gone 16W 9D 20L in their last 45 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Fulham away?
Hull City's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.55 PPG; Fulham away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Hull City or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Fulham in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Fulham go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Hull City
0
Draws
3
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Fulham?
From 3 meetings on record, Hull City have won 0, Fulham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Fulham 1-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Fulham see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 54%, Fulham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hull City) and 46% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Hull City have failed to score in 27% of games; Fulham in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hull City's recent matches and 50% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hull City's recent games and 46% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Fulham tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Fulham in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.