Hull City vs Everton – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hull City at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hull City host Everton at MKM Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hull City — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Hull City have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hull City have posted 5W 3D 2L at MKM Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Hull City carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hull City register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Everton in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Hull City in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Everton in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 55% versus Everton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 52% | Everton 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.39 xG and Everton 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.961 / defence 0.960 | Everton attack 0.961 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.211. Data: 2 Hull City games / 40 Everton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hull City 43% | Draw 27% | Everton 30%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Everton 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 60% | Everton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 43% | Draw 27% | Everton 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Hull City 1.39 / Everton 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.961 / def 0.960 | Everton attack 0.961 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Hull City (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Everton xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Everton kick off?
Hull City vs Everton is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at MKM Stadium.
Where is Hull City vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Everton part of?
Hull City vs Everton is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 43% chance of winning, Everton a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hull City and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Everton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and Everton in?
Hull City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Everton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.96) and Everton's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.75
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.51
1.12
Everton xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Hull City and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Hull City and 1.12 for Everton, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hull City come into this having played 40 games, going 20W 8D 12L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.32 PPG from 40 outings (14W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.70 PPG, Everton on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hull City's home form reads 9W 5D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.25 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Early Season
Everton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Everton in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 20W 8D 12L in their last 40 games (1.70 PPG), while Everton have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Everton away?
Hull City's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.60 PPG; Everton away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Hull City or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Everton in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 55%, Everton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Hull City) and 35% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Everton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Hull City's recent matches and 50% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Hull City's recent games and 35% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Everton tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Everton in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.