Fulham 0-1 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 48%, yet in-form Fulham provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fulham vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Tottenham travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 January 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fulham stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Tottenham have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Tottenham have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Fulham carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fulham register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Tottenham in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fulham, 1 for Tottenham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Tottenham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fulham in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Tottenham in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 57% versus Tottenham 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 62% | Tottenham 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.57 xG and Tottenham 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.041 / defence 1.187 | Tottenham attack 1.434 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.197. Tottenham have an above-average attack strength of 1.434 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Fulham games / 58 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 29% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 48%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Tottenham 2.08. Tottenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 2.04) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fulham (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.61 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 80% | Tottenham 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Monday 23 Jan 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 29% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Fulham 1.57 / Tottenham 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.041 / def 1.187 | Tottenham attack 1.434 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Tottenham xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Tottenham kick off?
Fulham vs Tottenham kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 23 January 2023 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Tottenham?
Fulham 0 - 1 Tottenham.
Where is Fulham vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Tottenham part of?
Fulham vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 29% chance of winning, Tottenham a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Fulham and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Tottenham?
Record (1 meetings): Fulham 0W | Draws 0 | Tottenham 1W.
What form are Fulham and Tottenham in?
Fulham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Tottenham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.04) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
29%
3.43
23%
4.35
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.61
2.04
Tottenham xG
3.43
29%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.30
Clean Sheet
13%
7.66
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
4%
26.24
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Fulham and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Fulham and 2.04 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fulham's recent record stands at 31W 12D 15L from 58 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 32W 8D 18L across 58 games — 1.79 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 1.81 PPG, Tottenham on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 17W 6D 6L from 29 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 13W 7D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.86 scored and 1.22 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: Tottenham in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 31W 12D 15L in their last 58 games (1.81 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 32W 8D 18L in their last 58 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Tottenham away?
Fulham's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.97 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Fulham or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Tottenham in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fulham have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Fulham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fulham
1
Draws
3
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Tottenham?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 4, Tottenham have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Fulham 2-1 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Tottenham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 62%, Tottenham 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Fulham and 52% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Tottenham in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Fulham's recent matches and 45% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Fulham's matches and 52% of Tottenham's.
Prediction vindicated as Tottenham edge out Fulham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Fulham 0-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.57 xG and Tottenham 2.04 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fulham fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Tottenham landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.04 / defence 1.19 against Tottenham attack 1.43 / defence 1.06, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 29% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 48%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 62%, Tottenham 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Tottenham's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.81 PPG, Tottenham 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Tottenham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.