Fulham vs Crystal Palace – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fulham at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crystal Palace make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Crystal Palace have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Crystal Palace have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Fulham's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Crystal Palace's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fulham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Crystal Palace in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fulham lead 2W to 2W over the last 8 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fulham — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 52% versus Crystal Palace 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 50% | Crystal Palace 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.76 xG and Crystal Palace 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.017 / defence 1.121 | Crystal Palace attack 0.839 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.210. Data: 40 Fulham games / 40 Crystal Palace games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fulham 52% | Draw 23% | Crystal Palace 25%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Crystal Palace 4.00. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Crystal Palace 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 52% | Draw 23% | Crystal Palace 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Fulham 1.76 / Crystal Palace 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.017 / def 1.121 | Crystal Palace attack 0.839 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Fulham (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Crystal Palace xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Fulham vs Crystal Palace is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026 at Craven Cottage.
Where is Fulham vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Crystal Palace part of?
Fulham vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 52% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fulham and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
Record (8 meetings): Fulham 2W | Draws 4 | Crystal Palace 2W.
What form are Fulham and Crystal Palace in?
Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Crystal Palace (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fulham's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Crystal Palace's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.84x) against Fulham's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
52%
1.92
23%
4.26
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.90
1.14
Crystal Palace xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
4%
23.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Fulham and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Fulham and 1.14 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham's recent record stands at 15W 7D 18L from 40 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 17L across 40 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Crystal Palace, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Fulham against 1.12 for Crystal Palace. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 11W 2D 7L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Fulham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 7W 3D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.05 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Crystal Palace
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Crystal Palace away?
Fulham's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.75 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Fulham or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 0-3 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fulham
4
Draws
2
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Crystal Palace have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 55%, Crystal Palace 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Fulham) and 60% (Crystal Palace). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Fulham's recent matches and 50% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Fulham's matches and 60% of Crystal Palace's.
Do Fulham and Crystal Palace tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Crystal Palace in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.