Fulham 3-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fulham and Burnley meet at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Craven Cottage, Fulham have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Burnley have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Burnley have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Fulham. A 0.50 PPG lead over Burnley (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fulham register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Burnley in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fulham lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 3–2 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 41% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 66% versus Burnley 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 57% | Burnley 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 2.01 xG and Burnley 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.053 / defence 1.012 | Burnley attack 0.822 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.267. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Fulham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Fulham games / 30 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 58% | Draw 24% | Burnley 18%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Burnley 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 70% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 58% | Draw 24% | Burnley 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Fulham 2.01 / Burnley 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.053 / def 1.012 | Burnley attack 0.822 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Fulham (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Burnley xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Burnley kick off?
Fulham vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Burnley?
Fulham 3 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Fulham vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Burnley part of?
Fulham vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 58% chance of winning, Burnley a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fulham and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Burnley?
Record (3 meetings): Fulham 1W | Draws 1 | Burnley 1W.
What form are Fulham and Burnley in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Burnley (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fulham's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.82x) against Fulham's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.12
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Fulham xG
Total xG
3.07
1.05
Burnley xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
2%
42.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Fulham and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Fulham and 1.05 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham come into this having played 68 games, going 27W 14D 27L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Burnley sit at 1.51 PPG from 68 outings (27W 22D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Fulham against 1.51 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fulham's home form reads 15W 7D 12L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Burnley have taken 1.50 points per game from 34 outings (14W 9D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.28 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Burnley in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Burnley in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 27W 14D 27L in their last 68 games (1.40 PPG), while Burnley have gone 27W 22D 19L in their last 68 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Burnley away?
Fulham's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.53 PPG; Burnley away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Fulham or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Burnley in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Fulham have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fulham
1
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Burnley have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Fulham 3-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Burnley?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 68%, Burnley 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Fulham) and 47% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 38%; Burnley in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Fulham's games and 47% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Fulham's recent games and 47% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Burnley tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Burnley in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Burnley 3-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 2.01 xG and Burnley 1.05 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fulham beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.05 / defence 1.01 against Burnley attack 0.82 / defence 1.38, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 58% | Draw 24% | Burnley 18%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 57%, Burnley 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.40 PPG, Burnley 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.