Everton vs Liverpool – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Liverpool at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Liverpool encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Everton welcome Liverpool to Hill Dickinson Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Everton's home record at Hill Dickinson Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Liverpool — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Liverpool have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Liverpool's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Everton) versus 1.40 (Liverpool). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Liverpool, who boast 7 victories compared to 1 for Everton.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Liverpool winning.

It is worth noting that Liverpool have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 7 wins from 10 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Everton in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Liverpool in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 49% versus Liverpool 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 42% | Liverpool 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.03 xG and Liverpool 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.835 / defence 0.983 | Liverpool attack 1.189 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.269. Data: 45 Everton games / 45 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Everton 26% | Draw 27% | Liverpool 47%. Fair-value odds: Everton 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Liverpool 2.13. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Liverpool 70% BTTS from recent games.

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