Everton 4-0 Leicester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Leicester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Leicester travel to Goodison Park to take on Everton in Premier League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Everton have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Everton at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Leicester stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Leicester's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Everton are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Everton, 1 for Leicester and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Everton 1–1 Leicester — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Leicester in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 37% versus Leicester 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 40% | Leicester 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Everton surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Leicester have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.76 xG and Leicester 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.829 / defence 0.781 | Leicester attack 0.769 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.553. Leicester's defence rating of 1.423 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Everton's projected output up. Leicester's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Everton have a tight defence (rating 0.781), which is pulling Leicester's projected output down. Data: built from Everton's last 60 games and Leicester's last 23.
Result probabilities: Everton 56% | Draw 26% | Leicester 19%. Fair-value odds: Everton 1.80 | Draw 3.89 | Leicester 5.37. The model has a clear lean to Everton (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Everton at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Everton's last 10 home games and Leicester's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Everton 40% (last 10 home games) | Leicester 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Leicester | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 56% | Draw 26% | Leicester 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Everton 1.76 / Leicester 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.829 / def 0.781 | Leicester attack 0.769 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.553 • Poisson stance: Everton (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Everton xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Leicester xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton vs Leicester FAQs
What time does Everton vs Leicester kick off?
Everton vs Leicester kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Leicester?
Everton 4 - 0 Leicester.
Where is Everton vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Leicester part of?
Everton vs Leicester is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 56% chance of winning, Leicester a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Everton and Leicester will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Everton vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.83) and Leicester's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leicester's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Everton's last 60 games and Leicester's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
56%
1.80
26%
3.89
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Everton xG
Total xG
2.69
0.93
Leicester xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
3%
31.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton vs Leicester Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Everton and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Everton and 0.93 for Leicester, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Leicester?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Everton come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 17D 25L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Leicester sit at 1.50 PPG from 60 outings (27W 9D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Everton on 1.18 PPG, Leicester on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Everton's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Leicester have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 29 away games (11W 5D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Everton are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Everton have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Leicester
Blended
Everton (Home) vs Leicester (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton
Blended
Leicester
Blended
❓ Everton vs Leicester Form FAQs
What form are Everton and Leicester in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Leicester have gone 27W 9D 24L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Leicester away?
Everton's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.41 PPG; Leicester away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Everton or Leicester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Leicester in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Feb 2025, when Everton won Everton 4-0 Leicester.
Everton's record when hosting Leicester specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Everton
3
Draws
1
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton vs Leicester H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Leicester?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton have won 2, Leicester have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Leicester last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Everton 4-0 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Leicester?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Everton see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 34%, Leicester 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Everton) and 69% (Leicester). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton vs Leicester Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton and Leicester matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Everton's recent matches and 66% of Leicester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Everton and Leicester matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Everton's matches and 69% of Leicester's.
Do Everton and Leicester matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Everton's recent matches and 79% of Leicester's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Everton run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Leicester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Leicester 4-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.76 xG and Leicester 0.93 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Everton beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Leicester landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.83 / defence 0.78 against Leicester attack 0.77 / defence 1.42, drawn from 60/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 56% | Draw 26% | Leicester 19%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 40%, Leicester 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Leicester's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.18 PPG, Leicester 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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