Everton 2-3 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 37%, yet in-form Everton provide a compelling counter-argument — this Everton vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goodison Park plays host to Everton versus Bournemouth in Premier League (matchday 3). Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Everton at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bournemouth (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bournemouth's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Everton's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Bournemouth's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Everton, 2 for Bournemouth and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2024, ended Everton 1–2 Bournemouth — a Bournemouth win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Everton half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 38% versus Bournemouth 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 45% | Bournemouth 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.28 xG and Bournemouth 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.828 / defence 1.021 | Bournemouth attack 0.903 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.441. Data: built from Everton's last 40 games and Bournemouth's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 29% | Bournemouth 37%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.90 | Draw 3.47 | Bournemouth 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Everton (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Everton 30% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Everton 40 games, Bournemouth 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 3 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 29% | Bournemouth 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Everton 1.28 / Bournemouth 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.828 / def 1.021 | Bournemouth attack 0.903 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Bournemouth xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Everton vs Bournemouth kick off?
Everton vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Bournemouth?
Everton 2 - 3 Bournemouth.
Where is Everton vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Bournemouth part of?
Everton vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 3) (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 34% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Everton and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Everton vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.83x the league average against Bournemouth's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bournemouth's attack (0.90x) against Everton's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Everton's last 40 games and Bournemouth's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
34%
2.90
29%
3.47
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Everton xG
Total xG
2.61
1.33
Bournemouth xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Everton and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Everton and 1.33 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 9D 18L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Bournemouth sit at 1.25 PPG from 40 outings (13W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Everton against 1.25 for Bournemouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Everton's home form reads 8W 4D 8L across their last 20 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Bournemouth have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 20 away games (6W 4D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.40 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth in 62%.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Bournemouth
Early Season
Everton (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton
Early Season
Bournemouth
Early Season
❓ Everton vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Everton and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Bournemouth away?
Everton's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.40 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Everton or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Everton and Bournemouth, the earliest from November 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won Bournemouth 3-0 Everton on 12 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bournemouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Everton
1
Draws
5
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Bournemouth?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton have won 3, Bournemouth have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Everton and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Bournemouth 1-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 30%, Bournemouth 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Everton) and 75% (Bournemouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton and Bournemouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Everton's recent matches and 70% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Everton and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Everton's matches and 75% of Bournemouth's.
Do Everton and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Everton's recent matches and 85% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Everton 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Everton 2-3 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.28 xG and Bournemouth 1.33 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bournemouth outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Bournemouth attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Everton 34% | Draw 29% | Bournemouth 37%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 45%, Bournemouth 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.20 PPG, Bournemouth 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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