Crystal Palace 0-3 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crystal Palace and Fulham meet at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crystal Palace have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace's home record at Selhurst Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Crystal Palace are significantly better at Selhurst Park than their overall form suggests.
Fulham (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Fulham have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Crystal Palace, 1.10 for Fulham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Crystal Palace half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 52% versus Fulham 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 50% | Fulham 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.70 xG and Fulham 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.932 / defence 0.954 | Fulham attack 0.996 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.177. Data: 52 Crystal Palace games / 15 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 51% | Draw 25% | Fulham 25%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Fulham 4.00. Crystal Palace hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 50% | Fulham 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 51% | Draw 25% | Fulham 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Crystal Palace 1.70 / Fulham 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.932 / def 0.954 | Fulham attack 0.996 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Fulham xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Fulham kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Crystal Palace 0 - 3 Fulham.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Fulham part of?
Crystal Palace vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 51% chance of winning, Fulham a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Crystal Palace and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Fulham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crystal Palace and Fulham in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Fulham (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.93) and Fulham's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.00x) against Crystal Palace's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 52/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
51%
1.98
25%
4.02
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.82
1.12
Fulham xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
17%
6.05
4%
22.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.12 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 16W 19D 17L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham's form line: 27W 11D 14L from 52 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fulham are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crystal Palace.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.64 PPG from 25 outings (11W 8D 6L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 12W 5D 8L from 25 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.13 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Fulham in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 16W 19D 17L in their last 52 games (1.29 PPG), while Fulham have gone 27W 11D 14L in their last 52 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Fulham away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.64 PPG; Fulham away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Fulham in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 0-3 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Crystal Palace
4
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 2, Fulham have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 56%, Fulham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Crystal Palace) and 56% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fulham in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Crystal Palace's games and 56% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crystal Palace vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 56% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Fulham run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Crystal Palace.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Crystal Palace 0-3 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.70 xG and Fulham 1.12 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Crystal Palace fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Fulham outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Fulham attack 1.00 / defence 1.13, drawn from 52/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 51% | Draw 25% | Fulham 25%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Fulham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 50%, Fulham 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fulham's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.