Crystal Palace 0-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crystal Palace and Fulham meet at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crystal Palace have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Crystal Palace have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crystal Palace's home record at Selhurst Park: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Fulham (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Fulham have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Crystal Palace, 1.40 for Fulham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Crystal Palace, 1 for Fulham and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Crystal Palace half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fulham half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 49% versus Fulham 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 40% | Fulham 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.70 xG and Fulham 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.983 / defence 0.998 | Fulham attack 1.001 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.392. Data: 43 Crystal Palace games / 43 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 45% | Draw 24% | Fulham 32%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Fulham 3.12. Crystal Palace hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 50% | Fulham 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 45% | Draw 24% | Fulham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Crystal Palace 1.70 / Fulham 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.983 / def 0.998 | Fulham attack 1.001 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Fulham xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Fulham kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Crystal Palace 0 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Fulham part of?
Crystal Palace vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 45% chance of winning, Fulham a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Crystal Palace and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Fulham?
Record (2 meetings): Crystal Palace 0W | Draws 1 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Fulham in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.98) and Fulham's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.00x) against Crystal Palace's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
45%
2.23
24%
4.24
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
3.09
1.39
Fulham xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
6%
17.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.39 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 13W 13D 17L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Crystal Palace, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fulham's form line: 17W 8D 18L from 43 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Crystal Palace against 1.37 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (8W 7D 6L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 8W 2D 11L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.40 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Fulham in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 13W 13D 17L in their last 43 games (1.21 PPG), while Fulham have gone 17W 8D 18L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Fulham away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.48 PPG; Fulham away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 0-3 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Crystal Palace
4
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 2, Fulham have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 52%, Fulham 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Crystal Palace) and 62% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 57% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crystal Palace vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 62% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Crystal Palace's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 6, as Crystal Palace and Fulham drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.70 xG and Fulham 1.39 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Crystal Palace fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Fulham attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 45% | Draw 24% | Fulham 32%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 40%, Fulham 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fulham's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.21 PPG, Fulham 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.