Crystal Palace 1-2 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crystal Palace and Aston Villa meet at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Crystal Palace's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park this season: 2W 4D 0L from 6 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Selhurst Park.
Aston Villa (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Aston Villa have posted 1W 0D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Crystal Palace's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Aston Villa — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 50% versus Aston Villa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 58% | Aston Villa 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.62 xG and Aston Villa 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 1.019 / defence 0.945 | Aston Villa attack 0.675 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.366. Aston Villa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing Crystal Palace's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Crystal Palace games / 12 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 55% | Draw 25% | Aston Villa 20%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Aston Villa 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Crystal Palace (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crystal Palace at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Crystal Palace 50% | Aston Villa 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 55% | Draw 25% | Aston Villa 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG Crystal Palace 1.62 / Aston Villa 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 1.019 / def 0.945 | Aston Villa attack 0.675 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Aston Villa xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
Crystal Palace 1 - 2 Aston Villa.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa part of?
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 55% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Crystal Palace and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Aston Villa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crystal Palace and Aston Villa in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Aston Villa (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (1.02) and Aston Villa's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (0.68x) against Crystal Palace's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
55%
1.82
25%
4.03
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.49
0.87
Aston Villa xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
4%
24.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 0.87 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 12 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 3W 7D 2L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aston Villa's form line: 4W 1D 7L from 12 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Crystal Palace against 1.08 for Aston Villa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (2W 4D 0L).
On the road, Aston Villa have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aston Villa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crystal Palace come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 3W 7D 2L in their last 12 games (1.33 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Aston Villa away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.67 PPG; Aston Villa away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Aston Villa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Aston Villa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Crystal Palace won 5-0 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Crystal Palace have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aston Villa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
3
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Aston Villa?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 4, Aston Villa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 7 January 2026, when Crystal Palace 0-0 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Aston Villa?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 50%, Aston Villa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Crystal Palace) and 67% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Aston Villa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 50% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 67% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Aston Villa defy the odds to beat Crystal Palace 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa beat Crystal Palace 1-2 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.62 xG and Aston Villa 0.87 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Aston Villa outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Aston Villa attack 0.68 / defence 1.39, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 55% | Draw 25% | Aston Villa 20%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Aston Villa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 58%, Aston Villa 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Aston Villa's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.33 PPG, Aston Villa 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aston Villa win broke the near-deadlock. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.