Burnley 3-2 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Burnley welcome Everton to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 6 April 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Everton's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Burnley) versus 0.60 (Everton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Burnley, 1 for Everton and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with Everton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Everton trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 43% versus Everton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 36% | Everton 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.07 xG and Everton 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.580 / defence 1.141 | Everton attack 0.586 / defence 1.668. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.329. Burnley's attack strength of 0.580 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Everton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.668 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Burnley games / 28 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 39% | Draw 31% | Everton 30%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Everton 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burnley at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 30% | Everton 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 39% | Draw 31% | Everton 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Burnley 1.07 / Everton 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.580 / def 1.141 | Everton attack 0.586 / def 1.668 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Burnley (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Everton xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Everton kick off?
Burnley vs Everton kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 6 April 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Everton?
Burnley 3 - 2 Everton.
Where is Burnley vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Everton part of?
Burnley vs Everton is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 39% chance of winning, Everton a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Burnley and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Everton?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 0 | Everton 1W.
What form are Burnley and Everton in?
Burnley (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Everton (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.58x the league average against Everton's defence at 1.67x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.22
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.96
0.89
Everton xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
10%
9.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Burnley and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Burnley and 0.89 for Everton, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burnley come into this having played 28 games, going 3W 12D 13L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Everton sit at 0.89 PPG from 28 outings (7W 4D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 0.75 PPG, Everton on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Burnley's home form reads 2W 6D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 0.43 points per game from 14 outings (1W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Everton's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.07 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Everton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Everton in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 3W 12D 13L in their last 28 games (0.75 PPG), while Everton have gone 7W 4D 17L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Everton away?
Burnley's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.86 PPG; Everton away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burnley and Everton runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Burnley's record when hosting Everton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
4
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Everton?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Everton have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Everton 2-0 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 36%, Everton 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Burnley) and 64% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 57% of games; Everton in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Burnley's recent matches and 57% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Burnley's recent games and 64% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Everton 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Everton 3-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.07 xG and Everton 0.89 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.58 / defence 1.14 against Everton attack 0.59 / defence 1.67, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 39% | Draw 31% | Everton 30%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 36%, Everton 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Everton's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 0.75 PPG, Everton 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.