Burnley 3-3 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Crystal Palace at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Crystal Palace encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Crystal Palace meet at Turf Moor in Premier League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Burnley have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burnley have posted 1W 2D 2L at Turf Moor — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crystal Palace (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace away from home this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Crystal Palace arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Crystal Palace half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 64% versus Crystal Palace 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 46% | Crystal Palace 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.16 xG and Crystal Palace 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.910 / defence 1.056 | Crystal Palace attack 0.907 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.428. Crystal Palace bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Burnley's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Burnley games / 11 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 31% | Draw 27% | Crystal Palace 41%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Crystal Palace 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 60% | Crystal Palace 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 31% | Draw 27% | Crystal Palace 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Burnley 1.16 / Crystal Palace 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.910 / def 1.056 | Crystal Palace attack 0.907 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Crystal Palace xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Burnley vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Crystal Palace?
Burnley 3 - 3 Crystal Palace.
Where is Burnley vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Crystal Palace part of?
Burnley vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 31% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Burnley and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Crystal Palace?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Crystal Palace in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Crystal Palace (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.91x the league average against Crystal Palace's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.91x) against Burnley's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
31%
3.19
27%
3.66
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.52
1.37
Crystal Palace xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
13%
7.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Burnley and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Burnley and 1.37 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley's recent record stands at 1W 5D 5L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 2L across 11 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Crystal Palace by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.36 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Crystal Palace in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 1W 5D 5L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 3W 6D 2L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Crystal Palace away?
Burnley's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.00 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Burnley or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Crystal Palace won 3-0 on 24 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burnley
2
Draws
3
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Crystal Palace?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Crystal Palace have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Crystal Palace 2-3 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 60%, Crystal Palace 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Burnley and 80% for Crystal Palace. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 40% of games; Crystal Palace in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Burnley's recent matches and 40% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Burnley's matches and 80% of Crystal Palace's.
Burnley and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and Crystal Palace finished level at 3-3 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.16 xG and Crystal Palace 1.37 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crystal Palace outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Crystal Palace attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 31% | Draw 27% | Crystal Palace 41%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 46%, Crystal Palace 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Crystal Palace arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.