Aston Villa 1-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aston Villa at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aston Villa vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Aston Villa welcome Bournemouth to Villa Park in Premier League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Aston Villa — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Aston Villa at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Bournemouth have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Aston Villa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Aston Villa, 1 for Bournemouth and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended Aston Villa 3–1 Bournemouth — a Aston Villa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Aston Villa in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aston Villa 67% and Bournemouth 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aston Villa 72% | Bournemouth 65%). Note also that Bournemouth surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Aston Villa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aston Villa 1.85 xG and Bournemouth 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aston Villa attack 1.061 / defence 0.972 | Bournemouth attack 0.851 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.449. Data: built from Aston Villa's last 46 games and Bournemouth's last 46.
Result probabilities: Aston Villa 51% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 23%. Fair-value odds: Aston Villa 1.95 | Draw 3.96 | Bournemouth 4.28. Aston Villa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.85 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aston Villa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Aston Villa's last 10 home games and Bournemouth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Aston Villa 60% (last 10 home games) | Bournemouth 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aston Villa vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, matchday 9 | Venue: Villa Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aston Villa 51% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Aston Villa 1.85 / Bournemouth 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Aston Villa attack 1.061 / def 0.972 | Bournemouth attack 0.851 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Aston Villa xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bournemouth xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Aston Villa vs Bournemouth FAQs
What time does Aston Villa vs Bournemouth kick off?
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Villa Park.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Aston Villa 1 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Aston Villa vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Villa Park.
What competition is Aston Villa vs Bournemouth part of?
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth is a Premier League fixture (matchday 9) (England).
Who is favourite to win Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Aston Villa a 51% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Aston Villa and Bournemouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Aston Villa vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Aston Villa's attack rating (1.06) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Aston Villa's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Aston Villa's last 46 games and Bournemouth's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
51%
1.95
25%
3.96
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Aston Villa xG
Total xG
3.05
1.20
Bournemouth xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
4%
27.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Aston Villa vs Bournemouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Aston Villa and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Aston Villa and 1.20 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Aston Villa vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Aston Villa have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 25W 10D 11L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Bournemouth's form line: 16W 11D 19L from 46 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Aston Villa are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bournemouth.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Aston Villa have posted 2.04 PPG from their last 23 home games (14W 5D 4L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 7W 4D 12L from their last 23 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aston Villa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aston Villa are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.39 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aston Villa have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aston Villa
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
Aston Villa (Home) vs Bournemouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Aston Villa
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Aston Villa vs Bournemouth Form FAQs
What form are Aston Villa and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Aston Villa have gone 25W 10D 11L in their last 46 games (1.85 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aston Villa at home or Bournemouth away?
Aston Villa's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aston Villa at home: 2.04 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2025, when Aston Villa won Aston Villa 4-0 Bournemouth.
Aston Villa's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Aston Villa
3
Draws
1
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Aston Villa vs Bournemouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Aston Villa and Bournemouth?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Aston Villa have won 4, Bournemouth have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aston Villa and Bournemouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Aston Villa and Bournemouth?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Aston Villa at 70%, Bournemouth at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Aston Villa and 74% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aston Villa home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Aston Villa vs Bournemouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Aston Villa and Bournemouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Aston Villa's games and 65% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Aston Villa and Bournemouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Aston Villa's matches and 74% of Bournemouth's.
Do Aston Villa and Bournemouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Aston Villa's recent matches and 83% of Bournemouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aston Villa and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aston Villa and Bournemouth finished level at 1-1 at Villa Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aston Villa 1.85 xG and Bournemouth 1.20 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Aston Villa fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aston Villa attack 1.06 / defence 0.97 against Bournemouth attack 0.85 / defence 1.13, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aston Villa 51% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 23%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aston Villa 72%, Bournemouth 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aston Villa's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aston Villa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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