Arsenal 4-1 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arsenal (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Arsenal face Tottenham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Tottenham travel to Emirates Stadium to take on Arsenal. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal's home record at Emirates Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Emirates Stadium.
Tottenham — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Tottenham have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Arsenal are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Arsenal have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 8 past contests while Tottenham have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Arsenal winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Arsenal and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Arsenal in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Tottenham in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 51% versus Tottenham 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 43% | Tottenham 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 1.41 xG and Tottenham 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.194 / defence 0.684 | Tottenham attack 1.377 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.183. Tottenham's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Tottenham have an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — the away xG of 1.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Arsenal's defence rating of 0.684 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Arsenal games / 49 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 44% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 30%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Tottenham 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Arsenal 50% | Tottenham 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 44% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Arsenal 1.41 / Tottenham 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.194 / def 0.684 | Tottenham attack 1.377 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Tottenham xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Tottenham kick off?
Arsenal vs Tottenham kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Arsenal 4 - 1 Tottenham.
Where is Arsenal vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Tottenham part of?
Arsenal vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 44% chance of winning, Tottenham a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Arsenal and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Tottenham?
Record (8 meetings): Arsenal 6W | Draws 1 | Tottenham 1W.
What form are Arsenal and Tottenham in?
Arsenal (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Tottenham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Arsenal's attack rating (1.19) and Tottenham's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus Arsenal's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.78
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.53
1.11
Tottenham xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
7%
13.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Arsenal and 1.11 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arsenal's recent record stands at 28W 16D 5L from 49 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 25L across 49 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arsenal by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tottenham heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Arsenal have managed 15W 7D 2L from 24 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 9W 3D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Arsenal are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.69 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 28W 16D 5L in their last 49 games (2.04 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 16W 8D 25L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Tottenham away?
Arsenal's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.17 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Tottenham in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arsenal and Tottenham runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Arsenal have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2022, when Tottenham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arsenal's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Arsenal
1
Draws
1
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 8, Tottenham have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Tottenham 1-4 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Tottenham?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 50%, Tottenham 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Arsenal) and 58% (Tottenham).
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Arsenal's recent matches and 46% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arsenal vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Arsenal's recent games and 58% of Tottenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arsenal and Tottenham tend to score early?
Arsenal have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Tottenham in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Tottenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Tottenham 4-1 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.41 xG and Tottenham 1.11 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Arsenal beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.19 / defence 0.68 against Tottenham attack 1.38 / defence 0.77, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 44% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 30%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 43%, Tottenham 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Tottenham's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm. Tottenham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.