Arsenal 2-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arsenal at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Arsenal face Fulham.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Emirates Stadium plays host to Arsenal versus Fulham in Premier League (matchday 30). Kick-off: Tuesday 1 April 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Arsenal have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Arsenal have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Fulham's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Arsenal edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2024, ended Arsenal 1–1 Fulham — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Arsenal — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Fulham — key trading statistics (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 46% versus Fulham 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 52% | Fulham 60%). Note also that Fulham surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Arsenal recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 1.53 xG and Fulham 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.127 / defence 0.720 | Fulham attack 1.064 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.482. Arsenal have a tight defence (rating 0.720), which is pulling Fulham's projected output down. Data: built from Arsenal's last 67 games and Fulham's last 67.
Result probabilities: Arsenal 46% | Draw 25% | Fulham 28%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 2.16 | Draw 3.93 | Fulham 3.54. Arsenal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arsenal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Arsenal 40% (last 10 home games) | Fulham 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 30 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 April 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 46% | Draw 25% | Fulham 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Arsenal 1.53 / Fulham 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.127 / def 0.720 | Fulham attack 1.064 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.482 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Fulham xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Arsenal vs Fulham FAQs
What time does Arsenal vs Fulham kick off?
Arsenal vs Fulham kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 1 April 2025 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Fulham?
Arsenal 2 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Arsenal vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Fulham part of?
Arsenal vs Fulham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 46% chance of winning, Fulham a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Arsenal and Fulham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Arsenal vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arsenal's attack at 1.13x the league average against Fulham's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.06x) against Arsenal's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Arsenal's last 67 games and Fulham's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
46%
2.16
25%
3.93
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.66
1.13
Fulham xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Arsenal vs Fulham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Arsenal and 1.13 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Arsenal have picked up 2.19 PPG on a 44W 15D 8L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Fulham's form line: 25W 17D 25L from 67 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fulham.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Arsenal have posted 2.36 PPG from their last 33 home games (24W 6D 3L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 10W 10D 13L from their last 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arsenal are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.46 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
Arsenal (Home) vs Fulham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Arsenal
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Arsenal vs Fulham Form FAQs
What form are Arsenal and Fulham in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 44W 15D 8L in their last 67 games (2.19 PPG), while Fulham have gone 25W 17D 25L in their last 67 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Fulham away?
Arsenal's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.36 PPG; Fulham away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Fulham in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Arsenal have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won Fulham 0-3 Arsenal on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arsenal have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Arsenal
2
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Arsenal vs Fulham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Fulham?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Arsenal have won 5, Fulham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Fulham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Arsenal 3-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Fulham?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 52%, Fulham 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Arsenal and 58% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Arsenal vs Fulham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Arsenal and Fulham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Arsenal's games and 64% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Arsenal and Fulham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Arsenal's matches and 58% of Fulham's.
Do Arsenal and Fulham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Arsenal's recent matches and 64% of Fulham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Fulham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Fulham 2-1 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.53 xG and Fulham 1.13 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.13 / defence 0.72 against Fulham attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 46% | Draw 25% | Fulham 28%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 52%, Fulham 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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