Arsenal 0-0 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 72% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Arsenal host Everton at Emirates Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Arsenal — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal at Emirates Stadium this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Emirates Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Arsenal are significantly better at Emirates Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Arsenal at 1.80 PPG versus Everton's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Arsenal, 2 for Everton and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Arsenal winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Arsenal trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Everton trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 44% versus Everton 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 56% | Everton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 2.29 xG and Everton 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.266 / defence 0.770 | Everton attack 0.644 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.401. Arsenal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Arsenal's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Arsenal games / 52 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 72% | Draw 19% | Everton 9%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.39 | Draw 5.26 | Everton 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (72%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal 50% | Everton 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 72% | Draw 19% | Everton 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 46% | xG Arsenal 2.29 / Everton 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.266 / def 0.770 | Everton attack 0.644 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Everton xG
46%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Everton kick off?
Arsenal vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Everton?
Arsenal 0 - 0 Everton.
Where is Arsenal vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Everton part of?
Arsenal vs Everton is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 72% chance of winning, Everton a 9% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Arsenal and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Everton?
Record (6 meetings): Arsenal 4W | Draws 0 | Everton 2W.
What form are Arsenal and Everton in?
Arsenal (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Everton (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arsenal's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.29. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Arsenal's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 3-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
72%
1.38
19%
5.27
9%
11.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.98
0.69
Everton xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
11.55
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
10%
9.84
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
1%
113.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.69 for Everton, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Everton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arsenal come into this having played 52 games, going 35W 10D 7L for 2.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Everton sit at 1.19 PPG from 52 outings (16W 14D 22L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Arsenal's home form reads 19W 4D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 1.00 points per game from 25 outings (6W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arsenal are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.04 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Everton in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 35W 10D 7L in their last 52 games (2.21 PPG), while Everton have gone 16W 14D 22L in their last 52 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Everton away?
Arsenal's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.44 PPG; Everton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Everton in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Arsenal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Arsenal won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Arsenal's record when hosting Everton specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Arsenal
2
Draws
2
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 6, Everton have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arsenal 2-0 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Everton?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 52%, Everton 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Arsenal) and 44% (Everton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Everton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Arsenal's recent matches and 44% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arsenal vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Arsenal's matches and 44% of Everton's.
Stalemate at Arsenal's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal and Everton finished level at 0-0 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 2.29 xG and Everton 0.69 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Arsenal fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.27 / defence 0.77 against Everton attack 0.64 / defence 1.09, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 72% | Draw 19% | Everton 9%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 56%, Everton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Everton's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.