Stevenage 3-1 Walsall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Walsall at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Walsall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Walsall in League Two, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 8 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League Two record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 2W 5D 3L at The Lamex Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Walsall (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Walsall's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Walsall arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Stevenage 0W, Walsall 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Walsall winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Walsall half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 36% versus Walsall 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 41% | Walsall 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.75 xG and Walsall 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.721 / defence 1.209 | Walsall attack 0.784 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.155. Stevenage's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Stevenage games / 22 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 23% | Draw 36% | Walsall 41%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 4.35 | Draw 2.78 | Walsall 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Walsall as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Walsall if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 50% | Walsall 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 23% | Draw 36% | Walsall 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Stevenage 0.75 / Walsall 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.721 / def 1.209 | Walsall attack 0.784 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Walsall (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Walsall xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Walsall kick off?
Stevenage vs Walsall kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Walsall?
Stevenage 3 - 1 Walsall.
Where is Stevenage vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Walsall part of?
Stevenage vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 23% chance of winning, Walsall a 41% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Stevenage and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Walsall?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Walsall 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Walsall in?
Stevenage (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Walsall (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Walsall's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. Flip it around — Walsall's attack (0.78x) against Stevenage's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
23%
4.43
36%
2.74
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.85
1.09
Walsall xG
4.43
23%
Home win
2.74
36%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
8%
13.24
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 17.3 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.09 for Walsall, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stevenage come into this having played 22 games, going 3W 8D 11L for 0.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Walsall sit at 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (7W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Walsall carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Stevenage — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Stevenage's home form reads 2W 5D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Walsall have taken 1.20 points per game from 10 outings (3W 3D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.27 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 22 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Walsall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Walsall in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 3W 8D 11L in their last 22 games (0.77 PPG), while Walsall have gone 7W 8D 7L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Walsall away?
Walsall's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.10 PPG; Walsall away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Walsall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stevenage
1
Draws
1
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Walsall?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Walsall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Stevenage 3-1 Walsall.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Walsall?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 50%, Walsall 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Stevenage and 30% for Walsall.
On the defensive side: Stevenage have failed to score in 30% of games; Walsall in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Walsall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Stevenage's recent matches and 40% of Walsall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Stevenage's recent games and 30% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Walsall tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Walsall in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Walsall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Walsall 3-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.75 xG and Walsall 1.09 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.72 / defence 1.21 against Walsall attack 0.78 / defence 0.96, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 23% | Draw 36% | Walsall 41%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Stevenage win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 41%, Walsall 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Walsall's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Walsall arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.77. Form was overturned, with Stevenage winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm. Walsall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.