Stevenage 2-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Stockport County meet at The Lamex Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League Two record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Stevenage have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 5W 0D 5L at The Lamex Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stockport County (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 League Two outings this term — 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Stockport County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Stevenage's 1.60 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Stockport County's 0.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.61 xG and Stockport County 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.044 / defence 1.059 | Stockport County attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.077. Data: 47 Stevenage games / 1 Stockport County games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 52% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 23%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Stockport County 4.35. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.8 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 52% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Stevenage 1.61 / Stockport County 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.044 / def 1.059 | Stockport County attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Stockport County xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Stockport County kick off?
Stevenage vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Stevenage 2 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Stevenage vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Stockport County part of?
Stevenage vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 52% chance of winning, Stockport County a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stevenage and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Stockport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stevenage and Stockport County in?
Stevenage (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Stockport County (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stevenage's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (0.85x) against Stevenage's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
The sample (47/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.96
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.58
0.97
Stockport County xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
4%
22.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.97 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 1 outings, Stevenage have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stockport County's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Stevenage are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stockport County.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stevenage are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 2.00 scored and 3.00 conceded. Stockport County's attacking output running into Stevenage's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Stevenage have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Stockport County in 100%.
Last 1 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Stockport County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Stockport County have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stockport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Stevenage
0
Draws
4
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Stockport County?
From 8 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 4, Stockport County have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Stockport County 2-0 Stevenage.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Stevenage's games and 100% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stevenage vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Stevenage's matches and 100% of Stockport County's.
Do Stevenage and Stockport County tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Stockport County 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Stockport County 2-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.61 xG and Stockport County 0.97 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Stockport County attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 52% | Draw 25% | Stockport County 23%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 100%, Stockport County 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stockport County managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.