Stevenage 1-0 Rochdale – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stevenage at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Rochdale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stevenage host Rochdale at The Lamex Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stevenage — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 3W 1D 6L at The Lamex Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rochdale stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Rochdale's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stevenage 0.50 PPG, Rochdale 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Stevenage have won 0, Rochdale 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Rochdale in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 40% versus Rochdale 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 45% | Rochdale 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.27 xG and Rochdale 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.841 / defence 1.456 | Rochdale attack 0.679 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 1.095. Rochdale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.549 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Stevenage games / 41 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 40% | Draw 29% | Rochdale 31%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Rochdale 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Rochdale 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 40% | Draw 29% | Rochdale 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Stevenage 1.27 / Rochdale 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.841 / def 1.456 | Rochdale attack 0.679 / def 1.549 | league avg home 0.977 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Rochdale xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Rochdale kick off?
Stevenage vs Rochdale kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Rochdale?
Stevenage 1 - 0 Rochdale.
Where is Stevenage vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Rochdale part of?
Stevenage vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 40% chance of winning, Rochdale a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stevenage and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Rochdale?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 1 | Rochdale 0W.
What form are Stevenage and Rochdale in?
Stevenage (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Rochdale (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.84) and Rochdale's defence rating (1.55), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rochdale's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.42
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.35
1.08
Rochdale xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.08 for Rochdale, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage come into this having played 40 games, going 8W 13D 19L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Rochdale sit at 1.18 PPG from 40 outings (10W 17D 13L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 0.92 PPG, Rochdale on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Stevenage's home form reads 5W 6D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Rochdale have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.05 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 40 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Rochdale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 8W 13D 19L in their last 40 games (0.92 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 10W 17D 13L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Rochdale away?
Stevenage's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.11 PPG; Rochdale away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Rochdale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Rochdale in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stevenage's record when hosting Rochdale specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stevenage
1
Draws
1
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Rochdale?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Rochdale have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Rochdale 2-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Rochdale?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 47%, Rochdale 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Stevenage) and 53% (Rochdale).
On the defensive side: Stevenage have failed to score in 37% of games; Rochdale in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Rochdale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Stevenage's recent matches and 58% of Rochdale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Stevenage's recent games and 53% of Rochdale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Rochdale tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Rochdale 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Rochdale 1-0 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.27 xG and Rochdale 1.08 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rochdale landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.84 / defence 1.46 against Rochdale attack 0.68 / defence 1.55, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 40% | Draw 29% | Rochdale 31%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 45%, Rochdale 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Rochdale's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 0.92 PPG, Rochdale 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Rochdale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.