Salford City 2-1 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Salford City face Swindon Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Swindon Town at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two (matchday 13). Kick-off is Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Salford City — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Salford City's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Swindon Town have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Swindon Town's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Salford City at 1.30 PPG versus Swindon Town's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Salford City's games and 70% of Swindon Town's (from Salford City's last 10 home games and Swindon Town's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Salford City, 1 for Swindon Town and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2024, ended Salford City 1–1 Swindon Town — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Salford City in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Swindon Town in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Salford City 63% and Swindon Town 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 58% | Swindon Town 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.20 xG and Swindon Town 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.854 / defence 1.023 | Swindon Town attack 1.026 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.245. Data: built from Salford City's last 57 games and Swindon Town's last 58.
Result probabilities: Salford City 34% | Draw 27% | Swindon Town 39%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.94 | Draw 3.71 | Swindon Town 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swindon Town are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swindon Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Salford City 60% (last 10 home games) | Swindon Town 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 13 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 October 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 34% | Draw 27% | Swindon Town 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Salford City 1.20 / Swindon Town 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.854 / def 1.023 | Swindon Town attack 1.026 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Swindon Town xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salford City vs Swindon Town FAQs
What time does Salford City vs Swindon Town kick off?
Salford City vs Swindon Town kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 22 October 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Swindon Town?
Salford City 2 - 1 Swindon Town.
Where is Salford City vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Swindon Town part of?
Salford City vs Swindon Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 13) (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 34% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Salford City and Swindon Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Salford City vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Salford City's attack at 0.85x the league average against Swindon Town's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Salford City's last 57 games and Swindon Town's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.71
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.50
1.31
Swindon Town xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
9%
10.87
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.7 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salford City vs Swindon Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Salford City and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Salford City and 1.31 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salford City's recent record stands at 16W 16D 25L from 57 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Swindon Town, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 25L across 57 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.12 PPG, Swindon Town on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 8W 8D 13L from their last 29 home games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swindon Town's away record stands at 4W 11D 14L across their last 29 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.54 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Swindon Town in 68%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Swindon Town
Blended
Salford City (Home) vs Swindon Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salford City
Blended
Swindon Town
Blended
❓ Salford City vs Swindon Town Form FAQs
What form are Salford City and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 16W 16D 25L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 16W 16D 25L in their last 57 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Swindon Town away?
Salford City's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.10 PPG; Swindon Town away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Salford City have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Salford City's record when hosting Swindon Town specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Salford City
4
Draws
1
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Salford City vs Swindon Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Swindon Town?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Salford City have won 5, Swindon Town have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Swindon Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Salford City 1-0 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Swindon Town?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Salford City at 72%, Swindon Town at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Salford City and 66% for Swindon Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salford City vs Swindon Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salford City and Swindon Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Salford City's games and 76% of Swindon Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Salford City and Swindon Town matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Salford City's matches and 66% of Swindon Town's.
Do Salford City and Swindon Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Salford City's recent matches and 76% of Swindon Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Swindon Town 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Swindon Town 2-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.20 xG and Swindon Town 1.31 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Salford City beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Swindon Town attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 34% | Draw 27% | Swindon Town 39%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 58%, Swindon Town 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Swindon Town's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.12 PPG, Swindon Town 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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