Port Vale 0-1 Walsall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Walsall at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Walsall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 19 as Port Vale welcome Walsall to Vale Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Port Vale have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port Vale have posted 4W 4D 2L at Vale Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Vale Park this season.
Walsall — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Walsall's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Port Vale) versus 1.90 (Walsall). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Port Vale, 2 for Walsall and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Walsall winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Port Vale trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Walsall trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 43% versus Walsall 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 43% | Walsall 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.06 xG and Walsall 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 1.093 / defence 1.035 | Walsall attack 1.109 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.244. Walsall's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 18 Port Vale games / 63 Walsall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 27% | Draw 28% | Walsall 45%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Walsall 2.22. Walsall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Walsall as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Walsall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 70% | Walsall 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Walsall | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 27% | Draw 28% | Walsall 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Port Vale 1.06 / Walsall 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 1.093 / def 1.035 | Walsall attack 1.109 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Walsall (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Walsall xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Walsall kick off?
Port Vale vs Walsall kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Walsall?
Port Vale 0 - 1 Walsall.
Where is Port Vale vs Walsall being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Walsall part of?
Port Vale vs Walsall is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Walsall?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 27% chance of winning, Walsall a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Walsall?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Port Vale and Walsall will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Walsall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Walsall?
Record (2 meetings): Port Vale 0W | Draws 0 | Walsall 2W.
What form are Port Vale and Walsall in?
Port Vale (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Walsall (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 1.09x the league average against Walsall's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Walsall's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
27%
3.67
28%
3.57
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.49
1.43
Walsall xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
7%
15.31
15%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Walsall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Walsall expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.43 for Walsall, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Walsall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 20W 16D 27L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Walsall's form line: 28W 15D 20L from 63 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.21 PPG, Walsall on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.19 PPG from 31 outings (10W 7D 14L).
On the road, Walsall have gone 10W 7D 14L from 31 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Port Vale are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Walsall are on 1.62 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Walsall in 65%.
Last 63 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Walsall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Walsall in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 20W 16D 27L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while Walsall have gone 28W 15D 20L in their last 63 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Walsall away?
Port Vale's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.19 PPG; Walsall away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Walsall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Walsall in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Port Vale's record when hosting Walsall specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Port Vale
0
Draws
4
Walsall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Walsall?
From 5 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Walsall have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Walsall last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Walsall 2-0 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Walsall?
Walsall have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 52%, Walsall 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Port Vale) and 61% (Walsall).
On the defensive side: Port Vale have failed to score in 29% of games; Walsall in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Walsall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Walsall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Port Vale's games and 61% of Walsall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port Vale vs Walsall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Port Vale's recent games and 61% of Walsall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Walsall tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Walsall in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Walsall edge out Port Vale 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall beat Port Vale 0-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.06 xG and Walsall 1.43 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Port Vale fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.09 / defence 1.03 against Walsall attack 1.11 / defence 0.76, drawn from 18/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 27% | Draw 28% | Walsall 45%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 43%, Walsall 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Walsall's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.21 PPG, Walsall 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Walsall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.