Port Vale 3-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fleetwood Town at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port Vale face Fleetwood Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Port Vale welcome Fleetwood Town to Vale Park in League Two (matchday 12). Kick-off is Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Port Vale stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Port Vale's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Fleetwood Town — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Fleetwood Town have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Port Vale) versus 1.90 (Fleetwood Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Port Vale, 1 for Fleetwood Town and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Feb 2024, ended Port Vale 2–2 Fleetwood Town — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Port Vale in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fleetwood Town in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 42% versus Fleetwood Town 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 46% | Fleetwood Town 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.20 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.863 / defence 0.970 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.439 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.212. Fleetwood Town have an above-average attack rating of 1.439, which lifts their away xG to 1.69. Data: built from Port Vale's last 11 games and Fleetwood Town's last 9.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 27% | Draw 24% | Fleetwood Town 49%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 3.69 | Draw 4.17 | Fleetwood Town 2.04. Fleetwood Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fleetwood Town as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Port Vale's last 10 home games and Fleetwood Town's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Port Vale 50% (last 10 home games) | Fleetwood Town 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 12 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 27% | Draw 24% | Fleetwood Town 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Port Vale 1.20 / Fleetwood Town 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.863 / def 0.970 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.439 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Fleetwood Town xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town FAQs
What time does Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town?
Port Vale 3 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 12) (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 27% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Port Vale and Fleetwood Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 0.86x the league average against Fleetwood Town's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Port Vale's last 11 games and Fleetwood Town's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
27%
3.69
24%
4.17
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.89
1.69
Fleetwood Town xG
3.69
27%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
5%
20.02
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.69 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port Vale's recent record stands at 15W 14D 26L from 55 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Fleetwood Town, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 24L across 55 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.07 PPG, Fleetwood Town on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 7W 6D 14L from their last 27 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fleetwood Town's away record stands at 7W 8D 12L across their last 27 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Port Vale are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.18 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Fleetwood Town
Blended
Port Vale (Home) vs Fleetwood Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port Vale
Blended
Fleetwood Town
Blended
❓ Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town Form FAQs
What form are Port Vale and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 15W 14D 26L in their last 55 games (1.07 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 14W 17D 24L in their last 55 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Fleetwood Town's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.00 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. They cover more than one competition — League One, League Two. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Feb 2024, when Fleetwood Town won Fleetwood Town 3-0 Port Vale.
Port Vale's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Port Vale
3
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Fleetwood Town?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Port Vale have won 2, Fleetwood Town have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2025: Fleetwood Town 1-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Fleetwood Town?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 48%, Fleetwood Town 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Port Vale) and 59% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Port Vale have failed to score in 33% of games; Fleetwood Town in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port Vale vs Fleetwood Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port Vale and Fleetwood Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Port Vale's recent matches and 59% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port Vale and Fleetwood Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Port Vale's recent games and 59% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Fleetwood Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Port Vale's recent matches and 89% of Fleetwood Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port Vale cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fleetwood Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Fleetwood Town 3-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 12, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.20 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.69 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Port Vale beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.44 / defence 1.04, drawn from 11/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 27% | Draw 24% | Fleetwood Town 49%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Port Vale win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 46%, Fleetwood Town 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.07 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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