Oldham 3-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Oldham host Stevenage at Boundary Park in League Two, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Oldham have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oldham's home record at Boundary Park: 0W 1D 4L from 5 League Two appearances (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 0.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Boundary Park this season.
Stevenage — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Stevenage have posted 1W 1D 3L from 5 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Oldham at 0.80 PPG versus Stevenage's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Oldham in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 36% versus Stevenage 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 54% | Stevenage 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 0.72 xG and Stevenage 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.669 / defence 1.374 | Stevenage attack 0.713 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.081. Oldham's attack strength of 0.669 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Oldham games / 11 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 22% | Draw 38% | Stevenage 40%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 4.55 | Draw 2.63 | Stevenage 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 40% | Stevenage 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 22% | Draw 38% | Stevenage 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Oldham 0.72 / Stevenage 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.669 / def 1.374 | Stevenage attack 0.713 / def 1.105 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Stevenage xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Stevenage kick off?
Oldham vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Stevenage?
Oldham 3 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Oldham vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Stevenage part of?
Oldham vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 22% chance of winning, Stevenage a 40% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Oldham and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Stevenage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oldham and Stevenage in?
Oldham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Stevenage (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Oldham's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
22%
4.53
38%
2.66
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Oldham xG
Total xG
1.78
1.06
Stevenage xG
4.53
22%
Home win
2.66
38%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
48%
2.06
Win to Nil
8%
13.06
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 17.8 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Oldham and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Oldham and 1.06 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oldham come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 2D 7L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.18 PPG from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Oldham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Oldham's home form reads 0W 1D 4L across 5 games on their own ground, a 0.20 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.73 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oldham are averaging 0.55 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 3W 4D 4L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Stevenage away?
Stevenage's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 0.20 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Oldham or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Stevenage in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Oldham
0
Draws
0
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Stevenage?
From 2 meetings on record, Oldham have won 2, Stevenage have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Stevenage 0-1 Oldham.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Stevenage?
Oldham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 40%, Stevenage 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Oldham) and 40% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 40%; Oldham have failed to score in 60% of games; Stevenage in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Oldham's recent matches and 40% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Oldham's recent games and 40% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Stevenage tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Oldham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oldham beat Stevenage 3-0 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 12, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 0.72 xG and Stevenage 1.06 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Oldham beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stevenage landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.67 / defence 1.37 against Stevenage attack 0.71 / defence 1.10, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 22% | Draw 38% | Stevenage 40%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Oldham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 54%, Stevenage 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Stevenage's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stevenage arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with Oldham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.