Oldham 0-3 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oldham at 36%, yet in-form Cambridge United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Oldham vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Cambridge United travel to Boundary Park to take on Oldham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 January 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oldham — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oldham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oldham's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Boundary Park this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League Two games this season, Cambridge United have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cambridge United are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Oldham, 0 for Cambridge United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Oldham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Oldham in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 46% versus Cambridge United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oldham 38% | Cambridge United 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 0.96 xG and Cambridge United 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.894 / defence 0.886 | Cambridge United attack 0.831 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.215. Data: 26 Oldham games / 27 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 36% | Draw 32% | Cambridge United 32%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Cambridge United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oldham are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambridge United (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oldham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 50% | Cambridge United 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Cambridge United | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 36% | Draw 32% | Cambridge United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Oldham 0.96 / Cambridge United 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.894 / def 0.886 | Cambridge United attack 0.831 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Oldham (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Cambridge United xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Cambridge United kick off?
Oldham vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Cambridge United?
Oldham 0 - 3 Cambridge United.
Where is Oldham vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Cambridge United part of?
Oldham vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 36% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Oldham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Oldham and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Cambridge United?
Record (1 meetings): Oldham 1W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 0W.
What form are Oldham and Cambridge United in?
Oldham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Cambridge United (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Oldham's attack rating (0.89) and Cambridge United's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oldham Win
36%
2.80
32%
3.10
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Oldham xG
Total xG
1.86
0.90
Cambridge United xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
12%
8.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 14.0 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Oldham and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Oldham and 0.90 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oldham's recent record stands at 8W 11D 7L from 26 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Oldham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 5L across 26 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cambridge United by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oldham heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Oldham have managed 4W 6D 3L from 13 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambridge United's away record stands at 4W 5D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cambridge United's season.
The Goals Picture
Oldham are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.31 scored and 0.85 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 8W 11D 7L in their last 26 games (1.35 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 13W 8D 5L in their last 26 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Cambridge United away?
Oldham's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.38 PPG; Cambridge United away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Oldham or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oldham and Cambridge United runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Oldham
0
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Cambridge United?
From 2 meetings on record, Oldham have won 1, Cambridge United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Oldham 0-3 Cambridge United.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oldham see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 54%, Cambridge United 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Oldham and 23% for Cambridge United.
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cambridge United in 31%; Oldham have failed to score in 31% of games; Cambridge United in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Oldham's recent matches and 46% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Oldham's recent games and 23% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oldham and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambridge United run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Oldham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambridge United beat Oldham 0-3 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 0.96 xG and Cambridge United 0.90 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Oldham fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cambridge United outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.89 / defence 0.89 against Cambridge United attack 0.83 / defence 0.85, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 36% | Draw 32% | Cambridge United 32%, with Oldham to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cambridge United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 38%, Cambridge United 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cambridge United's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambridge United arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Oldham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambridge United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.