Notts County 1-1 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Notts County (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Notts County face Harrogate Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Meadow Lane plays host to Notts County versus Harrogate Town in League Two, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 15 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Notts County have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Notts County have posted 5W 1D 4L at Meadow Lane — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Meadow Lane this season.
Harrogate Town's overall League Two record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Harrogate Town's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Notts County's 2.20 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Harrogate Town's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Notts County have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Harrogate Town in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Notts County 3W, Harrogate Town 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 3–1 with Notts County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 52% versus Harrogate Town 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 49% | Harrogate Town 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 2.11 xG and Harrogate Town 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.353 / defence 0.904 | Harrogate Town attack 0.893 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.207. Notts County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 Notts County games / 61 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 64% | Draw 20% | Harrogate Town 16%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Harrogate Town 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Notts County (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Notts County 60% | Harrogate Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 64% | Draw 20% | Harrogate Town 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG Notts County 2.11 / Harrogate Town 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.353 / def 0.904 | Harrogate Town attack 0.893 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Notts County (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Harrogate Town xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Notts County vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 November 2025 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Harrogate Town?
Notts County 1 - 1 Harrogate Town.
Where is Notts County vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Harrogate Town part of?
Notts County vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 64% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Notts County and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Harrogate Town?
Record (4 meetings): Notts County 3W | Draws 0 | Harrogate Town 1W.
What form are Notts County and Harrogate Town in?
Notts County (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Harrogate Town (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Notts County's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Harrogate Town's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. Flip it around — Harrogate Town's attack (0.89x) against Notts County's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
64%
1.57
20%
4.99
16%
6.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Notts County xG
Total xG
3.09
0.97
Harrogate Town xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
6.09
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
12%
8.28
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
2%
50.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Notts County and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Notts County and 0.97 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Harrogate Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Notts County come into this having played 61 games, going 28W 13D 20L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Harrogate Town sit at 1.10 PPG from 61 outings (18W 13D 30L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Notts County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Notts County's home form reads 15W 5D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Harrogate Town have taken 0.87 points per game from 30 outings (6W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Notts County are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 0.95 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 61 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 28W 13D 20L in their last 61 games (1.59 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 18W 13D 30L in their last 61 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Harrogate Town away?
Notts County's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.67 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Notts County or Harrogate Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Harrogate Town in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Notts County won 3-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Notts County have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Notts County
1
Draws
1
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Harrogate Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 4, Harrogate Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2026, when Harrogate Town 0-2 Notts County.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Harrogate Town?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Harrogate Town see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 47%, Harrogate Town 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Notts County) and 40% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Harrogate Town in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Notts County's recent matches and 43% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Notts County's recent games and 40% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Notts County and Harrogate Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County and Harrogate Town finished level at 1-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 16, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 2.11 xG and Harrogate Town 0.97 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Notts County fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.35 / defence 0.90 against Harrogate Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 64% | Draw 20% | Harrogate Town 16%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 49%, Harrogate Town 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.