Notts County 1-3 Gillingham – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Notts County at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Notts County face Gillingham.

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Fixture Analysis

Notts County welcome Gillingham to Meadow Lane in League Two (matchday 32). Kick-off is Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Notts County stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Notts County have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Notts County are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Gillingham have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Gillingham's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Notts County) versus 1.50 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Notts County have won 1, Gillingham 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Notts County 2–1 Gillingham — a Notts County win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Notts County trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

Gillingham trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 72% versus Gillingham 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 72% | Gillingham 34%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.80 xG and Gillingham 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.323 / defence 1.016 | Gillingham attack 0.764 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.321. Notts County carry an above-average attack rating of 1.323 — their 1.80 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Gillingham's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Notts County's last 29 games and Gillingham's last 75.

Result probabilities: Notts County 55% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 21%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.82 | Draw 4.05 | Gillingham 4.88. The model has a clear lean to Notts County (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Notts County's last 10 home games and Gillingham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Notts County 60% (last 10 home games) | Gillingham 50% (last 10 away games).

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