Milton Keynes Dons 0-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Milton Keynes Dons at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crawley Town make the trip to Stadium MK to face Milton Keynes Dons in League Two, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Milton Keynes Dons (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadium MK, Milton Keynes Dons have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crawley Town have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Crawley Town's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Milton Keynes Dons's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Crawley Town's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Milton Keynes Dons, 3 for Crawley Town and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Milton Keynes Dons goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (77 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (77 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Milton Keynes Dons 53% versus Crawley Town 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Milton Keynes Dons 53% | Crawley Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Milton Keynes Dons 2.03 xG and Crawley Town 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.202 / defence 0.842 | Crawley Town attack 0.653 / defence 1.321. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.168. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.321 — this is suppressing Milton Keynes Dons's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 77 Milton Keynes Dons games / 32 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Milton Keynes Dons 70% | Draw 19% | Crawley Town 11%. Fair-value odds: Milton Keynes Dons 1.43 | Draw 5.26 | Crawley Town 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Milton Keynes Dons (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Crawley Town lead the H2H ledger, but Milton Keynes Dons carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Milton Keynes Dons as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Milton Keynes Dons 60% | Crawley Town 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadium MK • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Milton Keynes Dons 70% | Draw 19% | Crawley Town 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 41% | xG Milton Keynes Dons 2.03 / Crawley Town 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.202 / def 0.842 | Crawley Town attack 0.653 / def 1.321 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Milton Keynes Dons (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Milton Keynes Dons xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Crawley Town xG
41%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town kick off?
Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at Stadium MK.
What was the final score in Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town?
Milton Keynes Dons 0 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Stadium MK.
What competition is Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town part of?
Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Milton Keynes Dons a 70% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 11% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Milton Keynes Dons the favourite.
Will both teams score in Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Milton Keynes Dons and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Milton Keynes Dons and Crawley Town?
Record (5 meetings): Milton Keynes Dons 1W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 3W.
What form are Milton Keynes Dons and Crawley Town in?
Milton Keynes Dons (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Milton Keynes Dons's attack rating (1.20) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.65x) against Milton Keynes Dons's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 77/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Milton Keynes Dons Win
70%
1.43
19%
5.17
11%
9.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Milton Keynes Dons xG
Total xG
2.67
0.64
Crawley Town xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
9.35
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
13%
7.59
Win to Nil
37%
2.72
1%
71.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Milton Keynes Dons and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 0.64 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Milton Keynes Dons come into this having played 77 games, going 30W 19D 28L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 0.90 PPG from 77 outings (17W 18D 42L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Milton Keynes Dons carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Milton Keynes Dons's home form reads 17W 10D 12L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 0.72 points per game from 39 outings (7W 7D 25L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Milton Keynes Dons come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Milton Keynes Dons are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.13 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 77 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Milton Keynes Dons
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Milton Keynes Dons and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Milton Keynes Dons have gone 30W 19D 28L in their last 77 games (1.42 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 17W 18D 42L in their last 77 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Milton Keynes Dons at home or Crawley Town away?
Milton Keynes Dons's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Milton Keynes Dons at home: 1.56 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Crawley Town won 1-5 on 11 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Milton Keynes Dons have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Milton Keynes Dons
2
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Milton Keynes Dons and Crawley Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Milton Keynes Dons have won 1, Crawley Town have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Milton Keynes Dons and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Milton Keynes Dons 0-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Milton Keynes Dons and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Milton Keynes Dons are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Milton Keynes Dons 49%, Crawley Town 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Milton Keynes Dons) and 62% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Milton Keynes Dons keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Milton Keynes Dons have failed to score in 31% of games; Crawley Town in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Milton Keynes Dons home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Milton Keynes Dons play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Milton Keynes Dons's recent matches and 44% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Milton Keynes Dons's recent games and 62% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Milton Keynes Dons and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Milton Keynes Dons have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Milton Keynes Dons's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Milton Keynes Dons and Crawley Town finished level at 0-0 at Stadium MK, Regular Season - 33, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Milton Keynes Dons 2.03 xG and Crawley Town 0.64 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Milton Keynes Dons fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.20 / defence 0.84 against Crawley Town attack 0.65 / defence 1.32, drawn from 77/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Milton Keynes Dons 70% | Draw 19% | Crawley Town 11%, with Milton Keynes Dons to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Milton Keynes Dons 53%, Crawley Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Milton Keynes Dons's trading profile (77 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (77 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Milton Keynes Dons arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Milton Keynes Dons (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.