Harrogate Town 1-3 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Harrogate Town at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
EnviroVent Stadium plays host to Harrogate Town versus Crawley Town in League Two, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Harrogate Town's overall League Two record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Harrogate Town's home record at EnviroVent Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Crawley Town have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Crawley Town are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Harrogate Town 0W, Crawley Town 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Harrogate Town — key trading statistics (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Harrogate Town 52% and Crawley Town 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 56% | Crawley Town 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 1.29 xG and Crawley Town 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 1.128 / defence 1.140 | Crawley Town attack 0.910 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.005 / away 1.111. Data: 27 Harrogate Town games / 28 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 37% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 30%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Crawley Town 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Harrogate Town are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Crawley Town (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Harrogate Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Harrogate Town 40% | Crawley Town 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: EnviroVent Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Harrogate Town 37% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Harrogate Town 1.29 / Crawley Town 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Harrogate Town attack 1.128 / def 1.140 | Crawley Town attack 0.910 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.005 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Harrogate Town (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Harrogate Town xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Crawley Town xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town kick off?
Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 February 2022 at EnviroVent Stadium.
What was the final score in Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Harrogate Town 1 - 3 Crawley Town.
Where is Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at EnviroVent Stadium.
What competition is Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town part of?
Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Harrogate Town a 37% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Harrogate Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Harrogate Town and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Crawley Town?
Record (1 meetings): Harrogate Town 0W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Harrogate Town and Crawley Town in?
Harrogate Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Harrogate Town's attack at 1.13x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.91x) against Harrogate Town's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Harrogate Town Win
37%
2.69
32%
3.08
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Harrogate Town xG
Total xG
2.44
1.15
Crawley Town xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
8%
11.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Harrogate Town and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Harrogate Town and 1.15 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Harrogate Town's recent record stands at 10W 7D 10L from 27 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 10L across 27 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Harrogate Town against 1.37 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Harrogate Town have managed 5W 5D 4L from 14 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 6W 3D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Harrogate Town are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.26 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 70%.
Last 27 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Harrogate Town
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Harrogate Town and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Harrogate Town have gone 10W 7D 10L in their last 27 games (1.37 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 10W 7D 10L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Harrogate Town at home or Crawley Town away?
Crawley Town's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Harrogate Town at home: 1.43 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Crawley Town go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Harrogate Town have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Harrogate Town
2
Draws
6
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Harrogate Town and Crawley Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Harrogate Town have won 0, Crawley Town have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Harrogate Town and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Crawley Town 2-0 Harrogate Town.
Who has won more matches between Harrogate Town and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Harrogate Town 57%, Crawley Town 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Harrogate Town) and 43% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Harrogate Town home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Harrogate Town play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Harrogate Town's games and 64% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Harrogate Town vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Harrogate Town's recent games and 43% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Harrogate Town and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Harrogate Town have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Harrogate Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Harrogate Town 1-3 at EnviroVent Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Harrogate Town 1.29 xG and Crawley Town 1.15 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Crawley Town outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Harrogate Town attack 1.13 / defence 1.14 against Crawley Town attack 0.91 / defence 1.14, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Harrogate Town 37% | Draw 32% | Crawley Town 30%, with Harrogate Town to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Crawley Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Harrogate Town 56%, Crawley Town 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Harrogate Town's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Harrogate Town 1.37 PPG, Crawley Town 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.