Grimsby 5-5 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grimsby at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grimsby vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Notts County travel to Blundell Park to take on Grimsby. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 January 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Grimsby — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Grimsby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Blundell Park, Grimsby have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Notts County stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Notts County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Notts County have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Grimsby at 1.30 PPG versus Notts County's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Grimsby have won 0, Notts County 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 2–3 with Notts County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Grimsby in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Notts County in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Grimsby 69% and Notts County 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Grimsby 54% | Notts County 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grimsby 1.95 xG and Notts County 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grimsby attack 0.906 / defence 1.360 | Notts County attack 1.016 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.315. Notts County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Grimsby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Grimsby games / 26 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grimsby 42% | Draw 22% | Notts County 37%. Fair-value odds: Grimsby 2.38 | Draw 4.55 | Notts County 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grimsby at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grimsby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Grimsby 80% | Notts County 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grimsby vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Blundell Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grimsby 42% | Draw 22% | Notts County 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG Grimsby 1.95 / Notts County 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Grimsby attack 0.906 / def 1.360 | Notts County attack 1.016 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Grimsby (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Grimsby xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Notts County xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grimsby vs Notts County kick off?
Grimsby vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Blundell Park.
What was the final score in Grimsby vs Notts County?
Grimsby 5 - 5 Notts County.
Where is Grimsby vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Blundell Park.
What competition is Grimsby vs Notts County part of?
Grimsby vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Grimsby vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Grimsby a 42% chance of winning, Notts County a 37% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Grimsby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grimsby vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Grimsby and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Grimsby vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Notts County?
Record (1 meetings): Grimsby 0W | Draws 0 | Notts County 1W.
What form are Grimsby and Notts County in?
Grimsby (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Notts County (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Grimsby's attack rating (0.91) and Notts County's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Grimsby's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Grimsby Win
42%
2.39
22%
4.63
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Grimsby xG
Total xG
3.77
1.82
Notts County xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.57
Clean Sheet
16%
6.16
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
7%
14.70
5%
19.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grimsby vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Grimsby and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Grimsby and 1.82 for Notts County, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Grimsby vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Grimsby have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 6W 9D 11L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grimsby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Notts County's form line: 13W 3D 10L from 26 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Notts County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Notts County are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grimsby.
Venue Form
On home soil, Grimsby have posted 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L).
On the road, Notts County have gone 3W 3D 7L from 13 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Notts County's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grimsby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Grimsby are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 2.12 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Grimsby have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Notts County in 73%.
Last 26 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grimsby
Blended
Notts County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grimsby and Notts County in coming into this match?
Grimsby have gone 6W 9D 11L in their last 26 games (1.04 PPG), while Notts County have gone 13W 3D 10L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grimsby at home or Notts County away?
Grimsby's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grimsby at home: 1.38 PPG; Notts County away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2024, when Notts County won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grimsby's record when hosting Notts County specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Grimsby
1
Draws
4
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grimsby and Notts County?
From 6 meetings on record, Grimsby have won 1, Notts County have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Grimsby and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Notts County 0-1 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Grimsby and Notts County?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Grimsby at 69%, Notts County at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Grimsby) and 62% (Notts County). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grimsby home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grimsby play Notts County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Grimsby's games and 77% of Notts County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grimsby vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Grimsby's matches and 62% of Notts County's.
Do Grimsby and Notts County tend to score early?
Grimsby have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Notts County in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grimsby and Notts County share the spoils in a 5-5 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grimsby and Notts County finished level at 5-5 at Blundell Park, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grimsby 1.95 xG and Notts County 1.82 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 5-5 for 10 actual goals. Grimsby beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Notts County outscored their 1.82 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grimsby attack 0.91 / defence 1.36 against Notts County attack 1.02 / defence 1.39, drawn from 72/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grimsby 42% | Draw 22% | Notts County 37%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grimsby 54%, Notts County 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grimsby's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Notts County's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Grimsby (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Notts County (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.