Crewe 1-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crewe vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crewe host Stockport County at Mornflake Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 31 January 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crewe have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crewe have posted 3W 3D 4L at Mornflake Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stockport County — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stockport County's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stockport County — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Crewe have won 0, Stockport County 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2022, ended 0–2 with Stockport County winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Crewe in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Stockport County in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 46% versus Stockport County 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 42% | Stockport County 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 0.80 xG and Stockport County 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 0.740 / defence 1.066 | Stockport County attack 1.035 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.064. Crewe's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 Crewe games / 26 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 25% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 45%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Stockport County 2.22. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 50% | Stockport County 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 25% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Crewe 0.80 / Stockport County 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 0.740 / def 1.066 | Stockport County attack 1.035 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Stockport County xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Stockport County kick off?
Crewe vs Stockport County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 31 January 2023 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Stockport County?
Crewe 1 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Crewe vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Stockport County part of?
Crewe vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 25% chance of winning, Stockport County a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Crewe and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Stockport County?
Record (1 meetings): Crewe 0W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Crewe and Stockport County in?
Crewe (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crewe's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
25%
4.05
31%
3.25
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Crewe xG
Total xG
1.97
1.17
Stockport County xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
8%
13.09
20%
4.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 16.4 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Crewe and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Crewe and 1.17 for Stockport County, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Crewe have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 7W 10D 9L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County's form line: 11W 5D 10L from 26 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crewe on 1.19 PPG, Stockport County on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 5W 1D 7L from 13 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Crewe are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.35 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 7W 10D 9L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 11W 5D 10L in their last 26 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Stockport County away?
Crewe's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.46 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Crewe or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crewe have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Stockport County in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Crewe's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Crewe
1
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Crewe have won 1, Stockport County have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when Stockport County 1-3 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 46%, Stockport County 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Crewe) and 54% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Crewe keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Stockport County in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Crewe's recent matches and 46% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crewe vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Crewe's recent games and 54% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Stockport County tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crewe and Stockport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Crewe and Stockport County drew 1-1 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 0.80 xG and Stockport County 1.17 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 0.74 / defence 1.07 against Stockport County attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 24/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 25% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 45%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 42%, Stockport County 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Stockport County's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crewe 1.19 PPG, Stockport County 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.