Crewe 1-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crewe at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crewe vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 10 as Crewe welcome Crawley Town to Mornflake Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Crewe — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Crewe have posted 3W 2D 5L at Mornflake Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Crewe carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Crewe register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Crawley Town in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Crewe in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 52% versus Crawley Town 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 46% | Crawley Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.36 xG and Crawley Town 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.062 / defence 1.079 | Crawley Town attack 0.961 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.036. Data: 8 Crewe games / 54 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crewe 43% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 29%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Crawley Town 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crewe at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Crewe 60% | Crawley Town 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crewe vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Mornflake Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crewe 43% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Crewe 1.36 / Crawley Town 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Crewe attack 1.062 / def 1.079 | Crawley Town attack 0.961 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Crewe (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Crewe xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Crawley Town xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crewe vs Crawley Town kick off?
Crewe vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Mornflake Stadium.
What was the final score in Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Crewe 1 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Crewe vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Mornflake Stadium.
What competition is Crewe vs Crawley Town part of?
Crewe vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Crewe a 43% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Crewe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crewe and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Crewe vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crewe and Crawley Town in?
Crewe (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crewe's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Crewe's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crewe Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.64
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Crewe xG
Total xG
2.44
1.07
Crawley Town xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
8%
13.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Crewe and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Crewe and 1.07 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Crewe vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Crewe have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 10W 11D 33L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town's form line: 18W 13D 23L from 54 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Crawley Town are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crewe.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crewe have posted 1.00 PPG from 27 outings (7W 6D 14L).
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 8W 7D 12L from 27 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Crewe are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.19 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 61%.
Last 54 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crewe
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crewe and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Crewe have gone 10W 11D 33L in their last 54 games (0.76 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 18W 13D 23L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crewe at home or Crawley Town away?
Crawley Town's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crewe at home: 1.00 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Crewe have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Crewe's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Crewe
1
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Crawley Town?
From 7 meetings on record, Crewe have won 5, Crawley Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crewe and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Crawley Town 0-1 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Crewe and Crawley Town?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crewe 52%, Crawley Town 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Crewe) and 52% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Crewe have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crewe home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crewe play Crawley Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Crewe's games and 63% of Crawley Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crewe vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Crewe's recent games and 52% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crewe and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Crewe have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crewe edge out Crawley Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Crawley Town 1-0 at Mornflake Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crewe 1.36 xG and Crawley Town 1.07 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crewe attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Crawley Town attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 8/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crewe 43% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 29%, with Crewe to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crewe 46%, Crawley Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crewe's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Crewe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.