Crawley Town 0-1 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 12 as Crawley Town welcome Sutton Utd to The People's Pension Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 0L across 5 games at The People's Pension Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Crawley Town are significantly better at The People's Pension Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sutton Utd stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Crawley Town) versus 1.70 (Sutton Utd). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Sutton Utd in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 60% versus Sutton Utd 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 60% | Sutton Utd 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.20 xG and Sutton Utd 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.113 / defence 1.161 | Sutton Utd attack 0.781 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.081. Data: 11 Crawley Town games / 10 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 38% | Draw 34% | Sutton Utd 27%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Sutton Utd 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Crawley Town 80% | Sutton Utd 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: The People's Pension Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 38% | Draw 34% | Sutton Utd 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Crawley Town 1.20 / Sutton Utd 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.113 / def 1.161 | Sutton Utd attack 0.781 / def 1.100 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sutton Utd xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at The People's Pension Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd?
Crawley Town 0 - 1 Sutton Utd.
Where is Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at The People's Pension Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd part of?
Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 38% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Crawley Town and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Sutton Utd?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and Sutton Utd in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Sutton Utd (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (1.11) and Sutton Utd's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sutton Utd's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
38%
2.61
34%
2.91
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.18
0.98
Sutton Utd xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
8%
12.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Crawley Town and 0.98 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 5W 2D 3L from 10 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 3L across 10 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.70 PPG, Sutton Utd on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Crawley Town are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sutton Utd's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sutton Utd's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.60 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sutton Utd in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Sutton Utd away?
Crawley Town's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 2.20 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Sutton Utd runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2022, when Sutton Utd won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Sutton Utd specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Crawley Town
1
Draws
4
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Sutton Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 1, Sutton Utd have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Sutton Utd 2-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Sutton Utd?
Sutton Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sutton Utd see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 80%, Sutton Utd 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Crawley Town) and 20% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd in 40%; Sutton Utd in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Sutton Utd?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Crawley Town's games and 40% of Sutton Utd's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Crawley Town's recent games and 20% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sutton Utd defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat Crawley Town 0-1 at The People's Pension Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.20 xG and Sutton Utd 0.98 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Crawley Town fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Sutton Utd attack 0.78 / defence 1.10, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 38% | Draw 34% | Sutton Utd 27%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sutton Utd win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 60%, Sutton Utd 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.70 PPG, Sutton Utd 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sutton Utd win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.