Crawley Town 2-0 Rochdale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Crawley Town at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Rochdale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Rochdale travel to Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 March 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Crawley Town are significantly better at Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rochdale stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Rochdale have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Crawley Town) versus 0.60 (Rochdale). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Crawley Town, 0 for Rochdale and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (82 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Rochdale in-play and half-time data (82 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 60% versus Rochdale 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 55% | Rochdale 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.70 xG and Rochdale 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 1.230 / defence 1.383 | Rochdale attack 0.852 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.064. Data: 82 Crawley Town games / 83 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 47% | Draw 26% | Rochdale 27%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Rochdale 3.70. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 60% | Rochdale 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 47% | Draw 26% | Rochdale 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Crawley Town 1.70 / Rochdale 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 1.230 / def 1.383 | Rochdale attack 0.852 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Rochdale xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Rochdale kick off?
Crawley Town vs Rochdale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 March 2023 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Crawley Town 2 - 0 Rochdale.
Where is Crawley Town vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Rochdale part of?
Crawley Town vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 47% chance of winning, Rochdale a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Crawley Town and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Rochdale?
Record (3 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 1 | Rochdale 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Rochdale in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Rochdale (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 1.23x the league average against Rochdale's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rochdale's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 82/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.91
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.95
1.25
Rochdale xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
5%
19.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.25 for Rochdale, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 25W 19D 38L from 82 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five.
Rochdale, meanwhile, have gone 18W 25D 39L across 82 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.15 PPG, Rochdale on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 16W 9D 15L from 40 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rochdale's away record stands at 8W 10D 22L across 40 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 82 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Rochdale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 25W 19D 38L in their last 82 games (1.15 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 18W 25D 39L in their last 82 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Rochdale away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.42 PPG; Rochdale away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crawley Town and Rochdale runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Crawley Town's record when hosting Rochdale specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
1
Draws
0
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Rochdale?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 3, Rochdale have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 25 March 2023, when Crawley Town 2-0 Rochdale.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Rochdale?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 62%, Rochdale 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Crawley Town) and 42% (Rochdale).
On the defensive side: Rochdale in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Rochdale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 45% of Rochdale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Crawley Town's recent games and 42% of Rochdale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Rochdale tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rochdale.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Rochdale 2-0 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.70 xG and Rochdale 1.25 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rochdale landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 1.23 / defence 1.38 against Rochdale attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 82/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 47% | Draw 26% | Rochdale 27%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 55%, Rochdale 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Rochdale's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.15 PPG, Rochdale 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Rochdale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.